Here is a WaPo story n the late calls by media Decision Desks from yesterday:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/biden-victory-media-call-delay/2020/11/07/58cd5198-210f-11eb-ba21-f2f001f0554b_story.html Basically,Mathe long delay even when the outcome seemed clear at least by Friday morning was the uncertainty created by the new, high levels of early voting. Especially hard to be confident about the nature of the uncounted ballots. Nothing nefarious there, and makes sense.there is a difference between casual observers with no skin in the game being 90% sure, and experts who have a professional obligation to get it right, who want to be 95, 99,:or even 99.5% sure. Main new thing I learned was explanation of odd couple discrepancy in the Arizona call: AP and Fox News broke away from the consortium used by most other outlets to provide election data and both went to a new, different service. The new service provided a slightly different sample, that made both AP and Fox (independently analyzing the same set of data) to judge Biden with a big enough lead to make a call. This explains what otherwise was one of the worst projections I have ever seen, and clearly the worst of this cycle. Even when Trump was way ahead in the reported vote count late Tuesday night in PA, it has always been clear Biden had a better chance of winning PA than AZ. Even more true with NV vs AZ. Yet AP is probably the most cautious, and Fox of opcourse,mic there was any editorial leakage, more conservative, so it just didn’t make sense to me that these would be the two to get this out of line. On Sun, 8 Nov 2020 at 6:14 AM Paul Murray <[email protected]> wrote: > > I think a big part of the problem is that characteristics of many Trump > voters makes them hostile and suspicious of the media and pollsters. More > than ever before, the sample of adults who agree to take a poll is > systematically different than the population of voters. This is going to be > a difficult problem to solve with conventional polling methodology. My > suggestion is something they will hate, which is to figure out a correction > based on demographic variables. > > An anecdote is not data, but I've seen Trump supporters on Reddit > gleefully claiming that they lied to a pollster about who they'd be voting > for. > > On Saturday, November 7, 2020 at 4:38:56 PM UTC-5 PGage wrote: > >> Cell phones may be part of the problem, but polls of all kinds, internet, >> landline, in person, cell phone, all are going to show about a 3.5 point >> polling error. That is not horrible, but twice in two cycles significant >> and in same direction. >> >> I think a big part of the problem is that characteristics of many Trump >> voters makes them hostile and suspicious of the media and pollsters. More >> than ever before, the sample of adults who agree to take a poll is >> systematically different than the population of voters. This is going to be >> a difficult problem to solve with conventional polling methodology. My >> suggestion is something they will hate, which is to figure out a correction >> based on demographic variables. >> >> Do wonder why polls were so far off in a state like Wisconsin, while so >> accurate in a state like Georgia. >> >> On Sat, 7 Nov 2020 at 10:50 AM Melissa P <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> Actually, the only real problem you mentioned is the fact that your >>> brother has two phones. >>> >>> The days of each household having only one, maybe two telephone lines >>> are long gone. >>> >>> Perhaps we'll have to go back to mailed questionnaires -- along with >>> financial incentives. >>> >>> On Sat, Nov 7, 2020 at 1:21 PM 'Bob Jersey' via TVorNotTV < >>> [email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> My cell sends out texts waaaaay slower than it receives them. >>>> >>>> It also has the tendency to misfire alarms/calendar reminders one hour >>>> before or after the actual time... I immediately thought my brother Allen, >>>> who uses two phones neither the same model as mine, had that problem today, >>>> tho he argued he just forgot to set that particular reminder... and almost >>>> called me an expletive... B >>>> >>>> MelissaP, to PGage, in part, Nov 7th: >>>> >>>>> My semi-educated guess: cell phone problem not solved and may never >>>>> be solved. >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>> Groups "TVorNotTV" group. >>>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >>>> an email to [email protected]. >>>> To view this discussion on the web visit >>>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/fa0f147b-2a5a-4d46-87df-c3bc1bbdf282n%40googlegroups.com >>>> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/fa0f147b-2a5a-4d46-87df-c3bc1bbdf282n%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> >>>> . >>>> >>> -- >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>> Groups "TVorNotTV" group. >>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >>> an email to [email protected]. >>> >> To view this discussion on the web visit >>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/CA%2B_fQPxpKdeMGe3yd_HQ7d23W24tAK6RG%3DYCq4ivBK9yiDPG-Q%40mail.gmail.com >>> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/CA%2B_fQPxpKdeMGe3yd_HQ7d23W24tAK6RG%3DYCq4ivBK9yiDPG-Q%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> >>> . >>> >> -- >> Sent from Gmail Mobile >> > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "TVorNotTV" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/3f669cb7-a5f4-4a2e-a9f6-16d1285516e2n%40googlegroups.com > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/3f669cb7-a5f4-4a2e-a9f6-16d1285516e2n%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> > . > -- Sent from Gmail Mobile -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TVorNotTV" group. 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