More support fir Nate Silver’s theory that the call for PA, and hence the election was held until the PA lead exceeded .5%, from the AP:
“By Saturday afternoon, Biden’s lead in the state had climbed to over 34,000 votes, an edge over Trump of 0.51 percentage points that placed him outside the margin for a mandatory recount. Under Pennsylvania law, a recount is automatic when the margin between two candidates in a statewide race is less than 0.5 percentage points. Biden’s lead over Trump was on track to stay outside of that margin as final votes are counted.” https://apnews.com/article/fe79276cd9175fffc7cf4fb58045fcf9 On Sat, 7 Nov 2020 at 8:40 AM PGage <[email protected]> wrote: > ABC also. > > Looks like Nate Silver was right, they were waiting for the margin in PA > to get to .5%. Latest results from Allegheny County put him over that mark. > > On Sat, 7 Nov 2020 at 8:30 AM PGage <[email protected]> wrote: > >> CNN makes the Call >> >> https://www.cnn.com/ >> >> >> >> On Sat, 7 Nov 2020 at 8:20 AM PGage <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> Nate Silver has a thankless job (luckily he is making a lot of money, so >>> doesn’t need thanks). No matter how many times and how many different ways >>> he tries to explain the nature if probabilistic prediction, most people >>> will neither understand nor care. >>> >>> My Electoral College prediction map, which I made Sunday night, based on >>> analysis from Nate and others like him, looks like it will be pretty good: >>> I had Biden getting NC instead of GA, otherwise it looks exactly like the >>> current map using where each candidate is ahead in counted votes. Nate had >>> Biden winning the popular vote by 8 points, looks like it will end up being >>> between 4 and 5. Nate told us that if Biden’s popular vote lead fell under >>> 5 points there was like a 33% chance he could lose the EC. >>> >>> Nate doesn’t do polling folks; he tries to combine polling results done >>> by others to make best predictions about the range of outcomes possible. >>> >>> On Sat, 7 Nov 2020 at 8:01 AM 'Bob Jersey' via TVorNotTV < >>> [email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> But of course, some consider it more important that Silver admit he >>>> isn't perfect, to which he replied "F*** you, we did a good job"... >>>> >>>> >>>> https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-nate-silver-fires-back-at-fivethirtyeight-critics-20201105-d5ho3nfkmrc2lo7tsags6jtdi4-story.html >>>> (link/possible >>>> $) >>>> >>>> B >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>> Groups "TVorNotTV" group. >>>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >>>> an email to [email protected]. >>>> To view this discussion on the web visit >>>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/bdf4e999-088d-49c4-9459-0e986bdb1466n%40googlegroups.com >>>> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/bdf4e999-088d-49c4-9459-0e986bdb1466n%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> >>>> . >>>> >>> -- >>> Sent from Gmail Mobile >>> >> -- >> Sent from Gmail Mobile >> > -- > Sent from Gmail Mobile > -- Sent from Gmail Mobile -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TVorNotTV" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/CAKGtkY%2BjAQA6E%2BrTb8dE6%2Bt4U2VJrMm_20YG9e4o7j%3DjHj3Ryw%40mail.gmail.com.
