Cell phones may be part of the problem, but polls of all kinds, internet, landline, in person, cell phone, all are going to show about a 3.5 point polling error. That is not horrible, but twice in two cycles significant and in same direction.
I think a big part of the problem is that characteristics of many Trump voters makes them hostile and suspicious of the media and pollsters. More than ever before, the sample of adults who agree to take a poll is systematically different than the population of voters. This is going to be a difficult problem to solve with conventional polling methodology. My suggestion is something they will hate, which is to figure out a correction based on demographic variables. Do wonder why polls were so far off in a state like Wisconsin, while so accurate in a state like Georgia. On Sat, 7 Nov 2020 at 10:50 AM Melissa P <[email protected]> wrote: > Actually, the only real problem you mentioned is the fact that your > brother has two phones. > > The days of each household having only one, maybe two telephone lines are > long gone. > > Perhaps we'll have to go back to mailed questionnaires -- along with > financial incentives. > > On Sat, Nov 7, 2020 at 1:21 PM 'Bob Jersey' via TVorNotTV < > [email protected]> wrote: > >> My cell sends out texts waaaaay slower than it receives them. >> >> It also has the tendency to misfire alarms/calendar reminders one hour >> before or after the actual time... I immediately thought my brother Allen, >> who uses two phones neither the same model as mine, had that problem today, >> tho he argued he just forgot to set that particular reminder... and almost >> called me an expletive... B >> >> MelissaP, to PGage, in part, Nov 7th: >> >>> My semi-educated guess: cell phone problem not solved and may never be >>> solved. >>> >> >> >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "TVorNotTV" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to [email protected]. >> To view this discussion on the web visit >> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/fa0f147b-2a5a-4d46-87df-c3bc1bbdf282n%40googlegroups.com >> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/fa0f147b-2a5a-4d46-87df-c3bc1bbdf282n%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> >> . >> > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "TVorNotTV" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/CA%2B_fQPxpKdeMGe3yd_HQ7d23W24tAK6RG%3DYCq4ivBK9yiDPG-Q%40mail.gmail.com > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/CA%2B_fQPxpKdeMGe3yd_HQ7d23W24tAK6RG%3DYCq4ivBK9yiDPG-Q%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> > . > -- Sent from Gmail Mobile -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TVorNotTV" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/tvornottv/CAKGtkYKxZqm1xWpEN3OdXyBbbgDYTF_ponWXDBUvXcm-R9J4iA%40mail.gmail.com.
