Sure, if an eCat is announced and publicly demonstrated, I certainly will be betting 2:1. Or better testing.
I'm not a mary yugo. I don't start with a conclusion and work backwards. I'm merely trying to estimate the probability. BTW, I notice you haven't made a counter offer yet. Will you give me 2:1 that the eCat exists? Or, ick, let's use Intrade odds. Will you go long at 6.6 that eCat exists? On Tue, Jul 9, 2013 at 1:17 PM, Kevin O'Malley <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > On Tue, Jul 9, 2013 at 12:58 PM, blaze spinnaker <[email protected] > > wrote: > >> I was always willing to take a bet that eCat existed. Didn't you ever >> make a market on Intrade? > > ***Yes. It had to do with Cold Fusion, as I posted earlier. But it was > not me, the market maker, who changed his tune. It was all the naysayers > on Intrade who talked big and loud, but didn't put their money down until > it was barely worth it for me. Market makers are not supposed to change > their tune by 700% within a week. > > > The End of *Snide Remarks* Against *Cold Fusion* - Free Republic > > http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/2265914/posts > > Free Republic, Gravitronics.net and Intrade ^ | 6/5/09 | *kevmo*, et al. > Posted on 06/05/2009 5:56:08 PM PDT *.* > > > > > > >> >> And, yes, I've gone from 5% to 17% probability of eCat existing. >> > ***You said 0%, now your tune changes again. You aren't making much sense > as you backtrack. > > > >> >> Things are moving quickly right now before ICCF / NI-WEEK. We live in >> exciting times. >> > ***Again, backtracking. This time with a classic fallacy attached, which > is the argument from silence (in this case the silence is from the > future). At the rate you're currently going, you'll be taking 2:1 FOR > Rossi within a month. > > > >> >> >> On Tue, Jul 9, 2013 at 12:44 PM, Kevin O'Malley <[email protected]>wrote: >> >>> >>> >>>> blaze >>>> spinnaker<http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]&q=from:%22blaze+spinnaker%22> >>>> Mon, >>>> 08 Jul 2013 18:56:47 >>>> -0700<http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]&q=date:20130708> >>>> >>>> Between this and the Pekka patent, very encouraging. I'd still give odds >>>> the ecat doesn't exist, though. Maybe 3 to 1 and I'd take 10 to 1 >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> ***So if I'm reading this right, and it isn't a typo... you've gone >>> from OFFERING 10:1 against Rossi to wanting to take that bet yourself. In >>> the short timespan of about a week. >>> >> >> >
