Taking this convo off list, email me if you'd like to be CC'd / included. On Tue, Jul 9, 2013 at 1:23 PM, blaze spinnaker <[email protected]>wrote:
> Sure, if an eCat is announced and publicly demonstrated, I certainly will > be betting 2:1. Or better testing. > > I'm not a mary yugo. I don't start with a conclusion and work backwards. > I'm merely trying to estimate the probability. > > BTW, I notice you haven't made a counter offer yet. Will you give me 2:1 > that the eCat exists? > > Or, ick, let's use Intrade odds. Will you go long at 6.6 that eCat exists? > > On Tue, Jul 9, 2013 at 1:17 PM, Kevin O'Malley <[email protected]>wrote: > >> >> >> >> On Tue, Jul 9, 2013 at 12:58 PM, blaze spinnaker < >> [email protected]> wrote: >> >>> I was always willing to take a bet that eCat existed. Didn't you ever >>> make a market on Intrade? >> >> ***Yes. It had to do with Cold Fusion, as I posted earlier. But it was >> not me, the market maker, who changed his tune. It was all the naysayers >> on Intrade who talked big and loud, but didn't put their money down until >> it was barely worth it for me. Market makers are not supposed to change >> their tune by 700% within a week. >> >> >> The End of *Snide Remarks* Against *Cold Fusion* - Free Republic >> >> http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/2265914/posts >> >> Free Republic, Gravitronics.net and Intrade ^ | 6/5/09 | *kevmo*, et al. >> Posted on 06/05/2009 5:56:08 PM PDT *.* >> >> >> >> >> >> >>> >>> And, yes, I've gone from 5% to 17% probability of eCat existing. >>> >> ***You said 0%, now your tune changes again. You aren't making much >> sense as you backtrack. >> >> >> >>> >>> Things are moving quickly right now before ICCF / NI-WEEK. We live in >>> exciting times. >>> >> ***Again, backtracking. This time with a classic fallacy attached, which >> is the argument from silence (in this case the silence is from the >> future). At the rate you're currently going, you'll be taking 2:1 FOR >> Rossi within a month. >> >> >> >>> >>> >>> On Tue, Jul 9, 2013 at 12:44 PM, Kevin O'Malley <[email protected]>wrote: >>> >>>> >>>> >>>>> blaze >>>>> spinnaker<http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]&q=from:%22blaze+spinnaker%22> >>>>> Mon, >>>>> 08 Jul 2013 18:56:47 >>>>> -0700<http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]&q=date:20130708> >>>>> >>>>> Between this and the Pekka patent, very encouraging. I'd still give odds >>>>> the ecat doesn't exist, though. Maybe 3 to 1 and I'd take 10 to 1 >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> ***So if I'm reading this right, and it isn't a typo... you've gone >>>> from OFFERING 10:1 against Rossi to wanting to take that bet yourself. In >>>> the short timespan of about a week. >>>> >>> >>> >> >
