"What part of the analysis am I getting wrong?" The problem with futures is storage fees tend to overwhelm price movements. Plus the nickel promised by those futures might not even be the type of nickel you can use for LENR.
If you were going to use the market, I'd look more at nickel miners who be well situated to pull out and refine the type of nickel needed for these devices. Of course, another possibility may be that LENR isn't real so the market is ignoring it.
