On Thu, Aug 8, 2013 at 5:18 AM, blaze spinnaker <[email protected]>wrote:
Of course, another possibility may be that LENR isn't real so the market is > ignoring it. > The thought occurred to me. But even if the majority of people didn't think LENR is real, I assume that a portion of them would think it might be real, or would be willing at least to hedge their bets. If everyone investing in the market knew about LENR, I would expect there to be a different outcome than a simple downward trend, starting at the beginning of 2011. More likely, it seems to me, in order for a market to be useful for the purposes of prediction (assuming this is something that can even happen), the participants have to have reviewed the relevant information and come to an opinion. If a market is swamped by people who do not even have an opinion, I think the effect would be hard to distinguish from people ignoring LENR. This is something that distinguishes the stock market in general from a place like Innotrade, where, presumably, the wording of the contracts gets people thinking about the topic in question enough for them to have an opinion before placing a bet. While it is possible that nickel is such a commodity that LENR use would not make a dent in it, I think this is a little implausible. Should the news break that this stuff is the real thing, there will be large investors that will try to corner the market. That will also cause any small investors to benefit if they got in early. I have no opinion on the details about the pricing of futures trades, which could perhaps change peoples' cost-benefit analysis enough that they're ignored. Any strategy that requires precise timing is obviously risky. Eric
