I think you might be correct in the long run about tar sands. The main problem is figuring out what option terms are appropriate or even available. For some reason, change takes much longer than we suspect so timing will be important and many of us will become bored waiting. How long did it take for the transistor to displace tubes after its invention? There is a long list of delayed and lost investment potentials.
Dave -----Original Message----- From: blaze spinnaker <[email protected]> To: vortex-l <[email protected]> Sent: Thu, Aug 8, 2013 10:33 am Subject: Re: [Vo]:Re-adjusting odds on Rossi/Defkalion being real lower, now ~27% I suspect the biggest impact will be on such uneconomical (and highly polluting) energy sources such as the Oil Sands in Canada. Buying long term put options on those seems like a smart play (with appropriate inflation hedges). On Thu, Aug 8, 2013 at 7:10 AM, David Roberson <[email protected]> wrote: Rossi claims that the total usage of nickel by LENR devices will be small compared to the current demand. Couple this extra small demand with a long delay before large production and you observe what is happening in the market. LENR should have a minor effect unless psychology boosts expectations. Dave -----Original Message----- From: blaze spinnaker <[email protected]> To: vortex-l <[email protected]> Sent: Thu, Aug 8, 2013 8:18 am Subject: Re: [Vo]:Re-adjusting odds on Rossi/Defkalion being real lower, now ~27% "What part of the analysis am I getting wrong?" The problem with futures is storage fees tend to overwhelm price movements. Plus the nickel promised by those futures might not even be the type of nickel you can use for LENR. If you were going to use the market, I'd look more at nickel miners who be well situated to pull out and refine the type of nickel needed for these devices. Of course, another possibility may be that LENR isn't real so the market is ignoring it.
