He should simply say, "I would bet 4 or 5 bucks based on my gut feeling". ***In essence, that's exactly what he did. When he first came onto Vortex, within a few short days he swung his estimate by 60 points, based on ZERO news. Then he's swung a few pointspartially based upon 2 items that had NOTHING to do with Rossi. One of the items was a rumor until today.
- STMicro patent (Increased about 4.5%) Nothing to do with Rossi. - Cherokee Investments (Increased about 2.5%) Rumor at the time. - Rossi stating third party reports in March (increased 2%) Big so what on this, he stated it months ago. - Lack of news from Defkalion (-1%) Nothing to do with Rossi. QED, he based it all on gut feeling. It's amazing that a gut feeling can be "accurate" to within 1/2 a % one day, but off by 60 points just a few weeks earlier. It reminds me of a woman who said she was willing to drive 12 miles to a restaurant but not 12 & a half. But on the way to the restaurant, she detoured to buy a dress, travelling 40 miles out of her way. It's no big deal until she starts insisting on how rational she supposedly is. On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 5:32 PM, Jed Rothwell <jedrothw...@gmail.com> wrote: > Kevin O'Malley <kevmol...@gmail.com> wrote: > > This is just his internal measuring stick. >> > > I get it. I am just kidding. > > To be fair, he has to put some dollar value on a bet, and it happens to be > $4.30. > > I think it is silly to say "this is the likelihood" expressed as a > percent. He should simply say, "I would bet 4 or 5 bucks based on my gut > feeling." There is nothing wrong with that. People with good intuition make > a lot of money betting. > > - Jed > >
