Put a gun to my head with 10,000,000 chambers and a bullet in only one of them selected at random and offer me $100 every time I pull the trigger, I would pull that trigger a number of times.
Why? Well obviously I could use the money, and more-so the risk of dying from getting in a car to go to any work place and working in that place and coming home would be about that anyway. And this would be a lot faster. The rates are apparently about 1.5 per 100 million vehicle miles, considering that you must drive to and from work multiple miles and include the risk of work (highly variable, but it is a 100% time/life suck either way) that makes this game of long odds Russian Roulette quite attractive by comparison. Pro Tip: Bus's are 30 times safer than private vehicles. I don't think it is possible to track 10,000,000 odd long shots which would probably include Nessie leaving the Loch and taking the Rothchilds out before going on tour. Ok, maybe that is slightly longer odds, but only a bit. On Mon, Jun 9, 2014 at 3:28 PM, Axil Axil <janap...@gmail.com> wrote: > The E-Cat has no threshold for irrelevance. In terms of probability, the > E-Cat is like a civilization killing asteroid impact on the earth. Even if > there is only a 1 in ten million chance that the E-Cat is a viable paradigm > changing energy device, its mass adoption will have catastrophic extinction > consequence for the status quo. > > Sooner or later, if the E-Cat is supported by physical law, it will be > built. > > > On Sun, Jun 8, 2014 at 8:12 PM, John Berry <berry.joh...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> Blaze's ego is astounding, thinking that he has things so well worked out >> that his ramblings about probability have meaning. >> >> Even if he were that good at working out probability, a few facts remain >> that make it worthless. >> >> 1: There is no such things as probability, things either happen or they >> don't. Rossi either IS real, or he is NOT real.. >> There is no such thing as probability in reality. >> >> 2: What is the difference between a 30% chance and a 70% chance? >> Answer 1: 40% >> Answer 2: Nothing much, both means that there is a very real possibility >> of it going either way. >> If you were invested in oil, it would mean that there is a very real risk >> that you must take seriously. >> If you are on the side of good, you know that there is an extraordinary >> possibility that might be worthy of attention, but might not pan out. >> >> But the difference between 0.1% chance and a 0.0000001% chance is huge! >> With the 0.1% there is a long shot, but one that could still very well >> pan out. Just 1 in 1,000 is not too distant odds to let one ignore >> something potentially significant good or bad. >> >> But 0.0000001 is 1 in ten million, an almost impossible long shot worthy >> of no attention/investment unless there are enough of these low level >> 'promises/threats' to bring it up to a level of relevance. >> >> John >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> On Mon, Jun 9, 2014 at 11:55 AM, Kevin O'Malley <kevmol...@gmail.com> >> wrote: >> >>> I'm constrained to decrease my ASSessment of an ASSurance >>> that Blaze will pull his head out of his ASinine "hind quarters" down to >>> 7.51%, taking into account the direction of the wind and the stock price >>> for CYPW Cyclone Power. >>> >>> At least this time Blaze increased the chances of Rossi being real >>> on the basis of stuff that had SOMEthing to do with Rossi. >>> >>> So, he thinks the In Mercato Veritas is a sign of unrealness rather than >>> the OBVIOUS thing it is: >>> an old fashioned Rossism expression of confidence. This was exactly the >>> way Rossi used to post >>> >>> >>> >>> before his friend Focardi got cancer. >>> >>> When Blaze talks about the lack of news leaks, he doesn't seem to realize >>> he's engaging in a classic >>> fallacy of arguing from silence. >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> On Sun, Jun 8, 2014 at 4:31 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>> >>>> Going to start publishing updates on this blog >>>> http://rossiisreal.wordpress.com/ rather than this mailing list. >>>> >>>> Rossi is now at 30% >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 8:46 PM, Kevin O'Malley <kevmol...@gmail.com> >>>> wrote: >>>> >>>>> If it's interesting enough to generate a patent then it is >>>>> worthwhile. The world would sit up and take notice simply because Rossi >>>>> ain't a fraud, as the common notion suggests. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 9:19 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> Another possibility is IH may have decided they don't want the world >>>>>> competing with them, so they gave the researchers an eCat which is just >>>>>> enough interesting to generate a patent but not so interesting it causes >>>>>> the world to sit up and take notice. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 9:12 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>> More and more I'm beginning to wonder if we're going to get a TIP >>>>>>> report that shows something interesting, but nowhere guaranteeing the >>>>>>> power >>>>>>> densities shown in the first report. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> While I believe that Rossi believes he has something and that IH >>>>>>> believes they have something and that there is no fraudulent behavior >>>>>>> going >>>>>>> on here, I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> And the middle is, yes energy, just not very exciting energy. And >>>>>>> possibly, after some analysis, it could be just an impressive new >>>>>>> source of >>>>>>> chemical energy that's competitive perhaps with Rocket Fuel in the best >>>>>>> case scenario, but in reality it's just competitive with optimal >>>>>>> Geothermal. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> In this scenario, I consider the eCat not to have lived up to its >>>>>>> promises which is why my estimate is around 35%. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> On Wed, May 21, 2014 at 6:19 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Decreasing the probability to 31% based on smelly stock offering. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> http://freeenergyscams.com/andrea-rossi-e-cat-hydro-fusion-cashing-in-before-the-collapse/ >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> HydroFusion is ran by Dr. Magnus Holm. Seems credible - but why >>>>>>>> didn't he wait until after the report to ask for more money? Why is >>>>>>>> Rossi >>>>>>>> doing shout outs about Dr Holm? >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Andrea Rossi >>>>>>>> May 18th, 2014 at 11:20 PM >>>>>>>> <http://www.journal-of-nuclear-physics.com/?p=848&cpage=1#comment-957368> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Orsobubu: >>>>>>>> Thank you for your comment, that indroduces us to the paper >>>>>>>> published today on the Journal of Nuclear Physics: >>>>>>>> GEOMETRY OF STRING THEORY SOLITONS >>>>>>>> by Dr Magnus Holm . It is an important work of this scientist made >>>>>>>> in 1999, but I find his work dense of important information. It is not >>>>>>>> an >>>>>>>> easy reading, the work is rigorous, but this is the Journal of Nuclear >>>>>>>> Physics, and the paper is perfectly in line with the field of >>>>>>>> application >>>>>>>> of our Journal. Dr Magnus Holm is presently working also with me for >>>>>>>> the >>>>>>>> E-Cat. >>>>>>>> About the comment of our friend Orsobubu: I do not share his >>>>>>>> certainties regarding the so called “social sciences”. >>>>>>>> Warm Regards, >>>>>>>> A.R. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> This could be just really inane business strategy or perhaps Magnus >>>>>>>> just doesn't have a good contract with Rossi/IH. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> For those who really believe in Rossi, my suggestion would be to >>>>>>>> contact Hydro fusion and buy up as many shares as you possibly can. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> I think everything comes down to this report that should be coming >>>>>>>> over the next month. We could see a rise over over 20-30% on the >>>>>>>> basis of >>>>>>>> this report. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Another possibility is that the report may reveal a low COP which >>>>>>>> is competitive only with geothermal and could be the result of >>>>>>>> uninteresting fuel sources. (which means a drop in probability of 10% >>>>>>>> or so) >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Another (unlikely in my mind) possibility is that the report will >>>>>>>> reveal that it doesn't do anything useful, which will be a drop in 25%. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> On Mon, May 12, 2014 at 10:41 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Decreasing the probability to 35% based on shattering news of the >>>>>>>>> Defkalion demo being completely worthless. I hesitate to say it, but >>>>>>>>> It >>>>>>>>> almost sounds like fraud is being implied. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> http://animpossibleinvention.com/2014/05/12/defkalion-demo-proven-not-to-be-reliable/ >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> On Sun, May 11, 2014 at 5:03 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Decreasing probability to 46% based on lack of news from Nanor >>>>>>>>>> but up to 47% based on recent news from Darden in China: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> http://www.icebank.cn/news/detail_2.php?id=118 >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> hat tip: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> http://www.e-catworld.com/2014/05/09/tom-darden-involved-in-opening-of-nickel-hydrogen-energy-research-center-in-tianjin-china/ >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Note: I suspect there will be an up to (-30%, +15%) swing in >>>>>>>>>> probability when the june report comes out. Big news indeed. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> On Sun, Feb 9, 2014 at 11:25 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability to 47% on the basis on Nanor / MIT >>>>>>>>>>> videos. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 3:42 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Put that back to 43%: >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Mr. Darden earned an MRP in environmental planning from the >>>>>>>>>>>> University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,* a JD from Yale >>>>>>>>>>>> Law School* and a BA from the University of North Carolina at >>>>>>>>>>>> Chapel Hill, where he was a Morehead Scholar. >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 3:22 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> Correction, make that 41%. It's not Cherokee but rather Tom >>>>>>>>>>>>> Darden (investor, co founder of Cherokee) and Mr. Vaughn (senior >>>>>>>>>>>>> analyst at >>>>>>>>>>>>> Cherokee, BA Economics) who are the players here. >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> It'd be good to find out who those other investors are. >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 2:35 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability to 44% on the basis of Cherokee PR >>>>>>>>>>>>>> release. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Big big BIG news. Now this is no longer about Rossi, but >>>>>>>>>>>>>> about Cherokee. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> I know you guys think I'm a git for my doubt, but hey, my >>>>>>>>>>>>>> model is waaaay ahead of the curve than the vast majority of the >>>>>>>>>>>>>> investing >>>>>>>>>>>>>> universe. XOM is still trading near historical highs, for >>>>>>>>>>>>>> example. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Thu, Jan 16, 2014 at 12:39 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability back to 35% based on the latest >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> news coming out of BLP and McKubre. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Hopefully we'll see some more encouraging things soon. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The next indie report on the ecat should be an interesting >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> inflection >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> report. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Jan 6, 2014 at 7:52 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Fulvio , the tech Director & R.D. at Leonardo Corporation >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> MIAMI - FL - USA previous job was: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> " Frelance Consultant >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.linkedin.com/search?search=&title=Frelance+Consultant&sortCriteria=R&keepFacets=true¤tTitle=CP&trk=prof-exp-title> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> European >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Gaming and Gambling Tech Market >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.linkedin.com/search?search=&company=European+Gaming+and+Gambling+Tech+Market&sortCriteria=R&keepFacets=true&trk=prof-exp-company-name> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> " >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> -4% >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Now back to 31%. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Jan 6, 2014 at 6:21 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> This is based on >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - STMicro patent (Increased about 4.5%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Cherokee Investments (Increased about 2.5%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Rossi stating third party reports in March >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (increased 2%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Lack of news from Defkalion (-1%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> News seems to be coming in fairly rapidly at this point. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Could be updating this probability more frequently. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>> >> >
