I guess what your'e really saying is that God Does Not Play Dice.
On Mon, Jun 9, 2014 at 5:36 AM, Blaze Spinnaker <blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: > "1: There is no such things as probability, things either happen or they > don't. Rossi either IS real, or he is NOT real.. > There is no such thing as probability in reality." > > I see.. > > > On Sun, Jun 8, 2014 at 5:12 PM, John Berry <berry.joh...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> Blaze's ego is astounding, thinking that he has things so well worked out >> that his ramblings about probability have meaning. >> >> Even if he were that good at working out probability, a few facts remain >> that make it worthless. >> >> 1: There is no such things as probability, things either happen or they >> don't. Rossi either IS real, or he is NOT real.. >> There is no such thing as probability in reality. >> >> 2: What is the difference between a 30% chance and a 70% chance? >> Answer 1: 40% >> Answer 2: Nothing much, both means that there is a very real possibility >> of it going either way. >> If you were invested in oil, it would mean that there is a very real risk >> that you must take seriously. >> If you are on the side of good, you know that there is an extraordinary >> possibility that might be worthy of attention, but might not pan out. >> >> But the difference between 0.1% chance and a 0.0000001% chance is huge! >> With the 0.1% there is a long shot, but one that could still very well >> pan out. Just 1 in 1,000 is not too distant odds to let one ignore >> something potentially significant good or bad. >> >> But 0.0000001 is 1 in ten million, an almost impossible long shot worthy >> of no attention/investment unless there are enough of these low level >> 'promises/threats' to bring it up to a level of relevance. >> >> John >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> On Mon, Jun 9, 2014 at 11:55 AM, Kevin O'Malley <kevmol...@gmail.com> >> wrote: >> >>> I'm constrained to decrease my ASSessment of an ASSurance >>> that Blaze will pull his head out of his ASinine "hind quarters" down to >>> 7.51%, taking into account the direction of the wind and the stock price >>> for CYPW Cyclone Power. >>> >>> At least this time Blaze increased the chances of Rossi being real >>> on the basis of stuff that had SOMEthing to do with Rossi. >>> >>> So, he thinks the In Mercato Veritas is a sign of unrealness rather than >>> the OBVIOUS thing it is: >>> an old fashioned Rossism expression of confidence. This was exactly the >>> way Rossi used to post >>> >>> >>> >>> before his friend Focardi got cancer. >>> >>> When Blaze talks about the lack of news leaks, he doesn't seem to realize >>> he's engaging in a classic >>> fallacy of arguing from silence. >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> On Sun, Jun 8, 2014 at 4:31 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>> >>>> Going to start publishing updates on this blog >>>> http://rossiisreal.wordpress.com/ rather than this mailing list. >>>> >>>> Rossi is now at 30% >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 8:46 PM, Kevin O'Malley <kevmol...@gmail.com> >>>> wrote: >>>> >>>>> If it's interesting enough to generate a patent then it is >>>>> worthwhile. The world would sit up and take notice simply because Rossi >>>>> ain't a fraud, as the common notion suggests. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 9:19 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> Another possibility is IH may have decided they don't want the world >>>>>> competing with them, so they gave the researchers an eCat which is just >>>>>> enough interesting to generate a patent but not so interesting it causes >>>>>> the world to sit up and take notice. >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> On Mon, Jun 2, 2014 at 9:12 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>> More and more I'm beginning to wonder if we're going to get a TIP >>>>>>> report that shows something interesting, but nowhere guaranteeing the >>>>>>> power >>>>>>> densities shown in the first report. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> While I believe that Rossi believes he has something and that IH >>>>>>> believes they have something and that there is no fraudulent behavior >>>>>>> going >>>>>>> on here, I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> And the middle is, yes energy, just not very exciting energy. And >>>>>>> possibly, after some analysis, it could be just an impressive new >>>>>>> source of >>>>>>> chemical energy that's competitive perhaps with Rocket Fuel in the best >>>>>>> case scenario, but in reality it's just competitive with optimal >>>>>>> Geothermal. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> In this scenario, I consider the eCat not to have lived up to its >>>>>>> promises which is why my estimate is around 35%. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> On Wed, May 21, 2014 at 6:19 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Decreasing the probability to 31% based on smelly stock offering. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> http://freeenergyscams.com/andrea-rossi-e-cat-hydro-fusion-cashing-in-before-the-collapse/ >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> HydroFusion is ran by Dr. Magnus Holm. Seems credible - but why >>>>>>>> didn't he wait until after the report to ask for more money? Why is >>>>>>>> Rossi >>>>>>>> doing shout outs about Dr Holm? >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Andrea Rossi >>>>>>>> May 18th, 2014 at 11:20 PM >>>>>>>> <http://www.journal-of-nuclear-physics.com/?p=848&cpage=1#comment-957368> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Orsobubu: >>>>>>>> Thank you for your comment, that indroduces us to the paper >>>>>>>> published today on the Journal of Nuclear Physics: >>>>>>>> GEOMETRY OF STRING THEORY SOLITONS >>>>>>>> by Dr Magnus Holm . It is an important work of this scientist made >>>>>>>> in 1999, but I find his work dense of important information. It is not >>>>>>>> an >>>>>>>> easy reading, the work is rigorous, but this is the Journal of Nuclear >>>>>>>> Physics, and the paper is perfectly in line with the field of >>>>>>>> application >>>>>>>> of our Journal. Dr Magnus Holm is presently working also with me for >>>>>>>> the >>>>>>>> E-Cat. >>>>>>>> About the comment of our friend Orsobubu: I do not share his >>>>>>>> certainties regarding the so called “social sciences”. >>>>>>>> Warm Regards, >>>>>>>> A.R. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> This could be just really inane business strategy or perhaps Magnus >>>>>>>> just doesn't have a good contract with Rossi/IH. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> For those who really believe in Rossi, my suggestion would be to >>>>>>>> contact Hydro fusion and buy up as many shares as you possibly can. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> I think everything comes down to this report that should be coming >>>>>>>> over the next month. We could see a rise over over 20-30% on the >>>>>>>> basis of >>>>>>>> this report. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Another possibility is that the report may reveal a low COP which >>>>>>>> is competitive only with geothermal and could be the result of >>>>>>>> uninteresting fuel sources. (which means a drop in probability of 10% >>>>>>>> or so) >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Another (unlikely in my mind) possibility is that the report will >>>>>>>> reveal that it doesn't do anything useful, which will be a drop in 25%. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> On Mon, May 12, 2014 at 10:41 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Decreasing the probability to 35% based on shattering news of the >>>>>>>>> Defkalion demo being completely worthless. I hesitate to say it, but >>>>>>>>> It >>>>>>>>> almost sounds like fraud is being implied. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> http://animpossibleinvention.com/2014/05/12/defkalion-demo-proven-not-to-be-reliable/ >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> On Sun, May 11, 2014 at 5:03 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Decreasing probability to 46% based on lack of news from Nanor >>>>>>>>>> but up to 47% based on recent news from Darden in China: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> http://www.icebank.cn/news/detail_2.php?id=118 >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> hat tip: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> http://www.e-catworld.com/2014/05/09/tom-darden-involved-in-opening-of-nickel-hydrogen-energy-research-center-in-tianjin-china/ >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> Note: I suspect there will be an up to (-30%, +15%) swing in >>>>>>>>>> probability when the june report comes out. Big news indeed. >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> On Sun, Feb 9, 2014 at 11:25 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability to 47% on the basis on Nanor / MIT >>>>>>>>>>> videos. >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 3:42 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Put that back to 43%: >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> Mr. Darden earned an MRP in environmental planning from the >>>>>>>>>>>> University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,* a JD from Yale >>>>>>>>>>>> Law School* and a BA from the University of North Carolina at >>>>>>>>>>>> Chapel Hill, where he was a Morehead Scholar. >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 3:22 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> Correction, make that 41%. It's not Cherokee but rather Tom >>>>>>>>>>>>> Darden (investor, co founder of Cherokee) and Mr. Vaughn (senior >>>>>>>>>>>>> analyst at >>>>>>>>>>>>> Cherokee, BA Economics) who are the players here. >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> It'd be good to find out who those other investors are. >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> On Fri, Jan 24, 2014 at 2:35 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability to 44% on the basis of Cherokee PR >>>>>>>>>>>>>> release. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Big big BIG news. Now this is no longer about Rossi, but >>>>>>>>>>>>>> about Cherokee. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> I know you guys think I'm a git for my doubt, but hey, my >>>>>>>>>>>>>> model is waaaay ahead of the curve than the vast majority of the >>>>>>>>>>>>>> investing >>>>>>>>>>>>>> universe. XOM is still trading near historical highs, for >>>>>>>>>>>>>> example. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Thu, Jan 16, 2014 at 12:39 PM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Increasing the probability back to 35% based on the latest >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> news coming out of BLP and McKubre. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Hopefully we'll see some more encouraging things soon. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The next indie report on the ecat should be an interesting >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> inflection >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> report. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Jan 6, 2014 at 7:52 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Fulvio , the tech Director & R.D. at Leonardo Corporation >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> MIAMI - FL - USA previous job was: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> " Frelance Consultant >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.linkedin.com/search?search=&title=Frelance+Consultant&sortCriteria=R&keepFacets=true¤tTitle=CP&trk=prof-exp-title> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> European >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Gaming and Gambling Tech Market >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> <http://www.linkedin.com/search?search=&company=European+Gaming+and+Gambling+Tech+Market&sortCriteria=R&keepFacets=true&trk=prof-exp-company-name> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> " >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> -4% >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Now back to 31%. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Jan 6, 2014 at 6:21 AM, Blaze Spinnaker < >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> This is based on >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - STMicro patent (Increased about 4.5%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Cherokee Investments (Increased about 2.5%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Rossi stating third party reports in March >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (increased 2%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> - Lack of news from Defkalion (-1%) >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> News seems to be coming in fairly rapidly at this point. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Could be updating this probability more frequently. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>> >> >
