Thanks for the analysis Charles ;) You are right that most of the UL is in the U.S. I do not have the exact split of how much UL was in the U.S., but you are probably pretty close except on the split between PMP and backhaul in the U.S. The PMP part is probably around 85% of the U.S. number.
You are right about our having some folks going back years. Maybe the longest example would Jason's Midcoast in Maine. Midcoast goes back at least to 1997. In addition to those, we have a pretty good crop of more recent operators that have moved upstream, so to speak. A prototypical example of one like that is Marty Dougherty's Roadstar Internet in Loudon County, VA. He transitioned upward twice from where he started in terms of vendor choice. We also have a healthy number of CLECs, especially post-DSL deregulation. To be fair though, there is also a number of smaller guys we have lost, mostly to purpose-built 802.11 such as old, honorable, but smaller stalwarts like Allen Marsalis's Shrevenet and Eje's business (who has transitioned more into a model where he sells products to other WISPs). Finally, selling through a two-tier distribution model means we sometimes lose some visibility, so it is not always easy to map out sales 100%. That said, we have to say, as would Moto, that not all CPE sales go to any type of WISP (or WiNOG), but rather go as PMP backhaul nodes for mesh deployments and a goodly number of CPE are now also shipping for public safety deployments. We now have several dozen cities under our belts and in none of those are we the edge access technology (except on the public safety side); we are the PMP backhaul. Good dialogue going here though. Patrick Leary AVP Marketing Alvarion, Inc. o: 650.314.2628 c: 760.580.0080 Vonage: 650.641.1243 -----Original Message----- From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 2:45 PM To: 'WISPA General List' Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE! <snip> Probably close to true, though I believe a bit on the high side. We probably sold around $80M in UL last year out of our $195M total since our UL/licensed split has historically hovered about 60% licensed/ 40% UL. Not bad in the face of massive behemoth like Motorola. </snip> So -- you sold $80M in UL last year What percentage of the was in the US? Let's gestimate that 50% of your UL sales were in North America (which, IMO, might be a bit low, since Internationally, 5 GHz and 900 MHz is kinda @#$@ up) So we're at $40M total Not knowing you're exact numbers, lets say there's an even split between all product lines (e.g., Backhaul, 900 Mhz, 2.4 GHz, 5 GHz) So 75% is PtMP Now we're at $30M Now, AP/CPE ratio -- not sure about Alvarion, but I remember from my equipment distribution days that we used to sell something like a 1:20 ratio -- Lets assume an average AP / infrastructure price of $2.5k, and an average CPE price of $500 - so using those numbers...about 20% of your sales revenue is APs, and 80% of your revenue is CPE 80% of $30M = $24M $24M / 500 = 48,000 CPE shipped into the US in 2005 alone How many Alvarion WISPs are there today still buying your product? If the number is 1,000 than that's an average of 480 CPE installed / WISP this year (or ~2 CPE installation / day) If 2,000, then that's an average of 240 CPE installed / WISP this year (or ~1 CPE installation / day) Over a 5 year time period (I would bet that many of your customers have been operating since 2001) -- that's a total of 2,000 WISPs w/ over 1,000 CPE installed Now, remember, you're Alvarion, and some of your customers have been installing these things since 1998... -Charles ------------------------------------------- CWLab Technology Architects http://www.cwlab.com -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Patrick Leary Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:44 PM To: 'WISPA General List' Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE! Charles said - "P.S. - I heard a rumor that the current UL market leader, Motorola Canopy sold close to $100 million in gear last year alone" In the total combined market we still lead, but for sure the real test comes when all major TEMs field their own 802.16e-2005. Patrick Leary AVP Marketing Alvarion, Inc. o: 650.314.2628 c: 760.580.0080 Vonage: 650.641.1243 -----Original Message----- From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:34 PM To: 'WISPA General List' Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE! Some interesting statistics -- 30% of the WISPs who attended our last WiNOG "claimed" on their surveys they had been in the wireless business for more than 5 years and had more than 1k wireless CPE deployed in the field Less than 10% of them claimed to be "pure-play" license-exempt fixed wireless providers This is why we call them Wi- "NOGs" instead of "ISPs" nowadays Don't forget, a lot of rural telcos / CLECs / ILECs (e.g., the "enemy") have gotten into license-exempt fixed wireless... -Charles P.S. - I heard a rumor that the current UL market leader, Motorola Canopy sold close to $100 million in gear last year alone ------------------------------------------- CWLab Technology Architects http://www.cwlab.com -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Jack Unger Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:46 PM To: WISPA General List Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE! Hopefully, the 8% (6,000,000) figure includes ONLY end-users who use wireless broadband to get to/from their home and NOT the end-users who have a copper/fiber-based (cable/telco) broadband connection to their home and then use a Wi-Fi router/access point that provides the "final 50-ft" connection wirelessly. There's so much sloppy and innacurate "journalism" these days that I need reassurance that the article means what it appears to be saying. If there are 6,000,000 end-users and if there are 5000 WISPs then each WISP would, on average, have 1,200 subscribers. I'm not sure that this passes the "sniff" test. jack John Scrivner wrote: > Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is > much > bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of all broadband > connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband wireless. That means you > guys! Woo Hoo! > Scriv > > > -- Jack Unger ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) - President, Ask-Wi.Com, Inc. 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