Thanks for the analysis Charles ;)

You are right that most of the UL is in the U.S. I do not have the exact
split of how much UL was in the U.S., but you are probably pretty close
except on the split between PMP and backhaul in the U.S. The PMP part is
probably around 85% of the U.S. number.

You are right about our having some folks going back years. Maybe the
longest example would Jason's Midcoast in Maine. Midcoast goes back at least
to 1997. In addition to those, we have a pretty good crop of more recent
operators that have moved upstream, so to speak. A prototypical example of
one like that is Marty Dougherty's Roadstar Internet in Loudon County, VA.
He transitioned upward twice from where he started in terms of vendor
choice. We also have a healthy number of CLECs, especially post-DSL
deregulation. 

To be fair though, there is also a number of smaller guys we have lost,
mostly to purpose-built 802.11 such as old, honorable, but smaller stalwarts
like Allen Marsalis's Shrevenet and Eje's business (who has transitioned
more into a model where he sells products to other WISPs).

Finally, selling through a two-tier distribution model means we sometimes
lose some visibility, so it is not always easy to map out sales 100%. That
said, we have to say, as would Moto, that not all CPE sales go to any type
of WISP (or WiNOG), but rather go as PMP backhaul nodes for mesh deployments
and a goodly number of CPE are now also shipping for public safety
deployments. We now have several dozen cities under our belts and in none of
those are we the edge access technology (except on the public safety side);
we are the PMP backhaul.

Good dialogue going here though.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-----Original Message-----
From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 2:45 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

<snip>
Probably close to true, though I believe a bit on the high side. We probably
sold around $80M in UL last year out of our $195M total since our
UL/licensed split has historically hovered about 60% licensed/ 40% UL. 
Not bad in the face of massive behemoth like Motorola.
</snip>

So -- you sold $80M in UL last year
What percentage of the was in the US?

Let's gestimate that 50% of your UL sales were in North America (which, IMO,
might be a bit low, since Internationally, 5 GHz and 900 MHz is kinda @#$@
up)
So we're at $40M total
Not knowing you're exact numbers, lets say there's an even split between all
product lines (e.g., Backhaul, 900 Mhz, 2.4 GHz, 5 GHz)
So 75% is PtMP
Now we're at $30M

Now, AP/CPE ratio -- not sure about Alvarion, but I remember from my
equipment distribution days that we used to sell something like a 1:20 ratio
-- Lets assume an average AP / infrastructure price of $2.5k, and an average
CPE price of $500 - so using those numbers...about 20% of your sales revenue
is APs, and 80% of your revenue is CPE

80% of $30M = $24M

$24M / 500 = 48,000 CPE shipped into the US in 2005 alone

How many Alvarion WISPs are there today still buying your product? 

If the number is 1,000 than that's an average of 480 CPE installed / WISP
this year (or ~2 CPE installation / day)
If 2,000, then that's an average of 240 CPE installed / WISP this year (or
~1 CPE installation / day)

Over a 5 year time period (I would bet that many of your customers have been
operating since 2001) -- that's a total of 2,000 WISPs w/ over 1,000 CPE
installed

Now, remember, you're Alvarion, and some of your customers have been
installing these things since 1998...

-Charles


-------------------------------------------
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com 



-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Patrick Leary
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 3:44 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!


Charles said - "P.S. - I heard a rumor that the current UL market leader,
Motorola Canopy sold close to $100 million in gear last year alone"



In the total combined market we still lead, but for sure the real test comes
when all major TEMs field their own 802.16e-2005.

Patrick Leary
AVP Marketing
Alvarion, Inc.
o: 650.314.2628
c: 760.580.0080
Vonage: 650.641.1243

-----Original Message-----
From: Charles Wu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:34 PM
To: 'WISPA General List'
Subject: RE: [WISPA] This is HUGE!

Some interesting statistics -- 30% of the WISPs who attended our last WiNOG
"claimed" on their surveys they had been in the wireless business for more
than 5 years and had more than 1k wireless CPE deployed in the field

Less than 10% of them claimed to be "pure-play" license-exempt fixed
wireless providers

This is why we call them Wi- "NOGs" instead of "ISPs" nowadays

Don't forget, a lot of rural telcos / CLECs / ILECs (e.g., the "enemy") have
gotten into license-exempt fixed wireless...

-Charles

P.S. - I heard a rumor that the current UL market leader, Motorola Canopy
sold close to $100 million in gear last year alone 

-------------------------------------------
CWLab
Technology Architects
http://www.cwlab.com 



-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
Behalf Of Jack Unger
Sent: Tuesday, May 30, 2006 1:46 PM
To: WISPA General List
Subject: Re: [WISPA] This is HUGE!



Hopefully, the 8% (6,000,000) figure includes ONLY end-users who use 
wireless broadband to get to/from their home and NOT the end-users who 
have a copper/fiber-based (cable/telco) broadband connection to their 
home and then use a Wi-Fi router/access point that provides the "final 
50-ft" connection wirelessly.

There's so much sloppy and innacurate "journalism" these days that I 
need reassurance that the article means what it appears to be saying.

If there are 6,000,000 end-users and if there are 5000 WISPs then each 
WISP would, on average, have 1,200 subscribers. I'm not sure that this 
passes the "sniff" test.
                           jack


John Scrivner wrote:

> Check this out from the Pew report. It appears that fixed wireless is
> much
> bigger than what even I thought. According to this report 8% of all
broadband 
> connections in the US are delivered via fixed broadband wireless. That
means you 
> guys! Woo Hoo!
> Scriv
> 
> 
> 

-- 
Jack Unger ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) - President, Ask-Wi.Com, Inc. Serving the
License-Free Wireless Industry Since 1993 Author of the WISP Handbook -
"Deploying License-Free Wireless WANs" True Vendor-Neutral WISP
Consulting-Training-Troubleshooting
Our next WISP Workshop is June 21-22 in Atlanta, GA.
Phone (VoIP Over Broadband Wireless) 818-227-4220  www.ask-wi.com




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