One the biggest factors holding our industry back is a lack of success
on the part of the big poster children. People look at the past failures
of WinStar and Teligent and wonder if new entrants can succeed. Many
investors are watching FiberTower and NextLink to see if these new
poster children can prove the business model.
It doesn't really matter that neither FiberTower or NextLink are
representative of our industry. What matters is they are both publicly
traded fixed wireless companies. This means that all fixed wireless
companies are viewed through the lens of these publicly traded companies
since they are the only ones with enough information for people to draw
conclusions on.
If you look at FiberTower's and NextLink's latest numbers you should be
very worried. NextLink is failing and I predict will be out of business
in the not too distant future. FiberTower is much better off than
NextLink, but they are burning cash at an impressive rate. One can
easily predict them running out of cash sometime next year if things
follow a similar trend.
Some of us on this list do more revenue than NextLink, but I doubt that
will matter when they go under. Our valuations will decline in lock step
to any failures by these two companies.
-Matt
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