----- Original Message -----
From: "Jed Rothwell" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: Re: Your Surrender has Been Ordered
The URL is difficult to enter, and the article is short and mainly quotes,
so I will take the liberty of uploading it. As Chris Zell says, it is
sadly defeatist.
- Jed
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Or realistic and responsible, depending on your persepctive. At present,
there is no way that the US will achieve energy indpendence in any time
window less than many decades. For transportation by auto and aircraft there
is no present substitute for oil. My caveat is "withou a radical change in
US economy and lifestyle", which may be impossible given the contesting
demands of social security and health care on the economic resources.
Changing these latter items would be "radical changes". I have read all the
arguments about biomass, wind, PV, nuclear, hydrogen storage, etc. and etc.
ad nauseum. All these are part of an evolutionary solution to which the US
will be forced to adapt without some other path open.
As a last resort, oil has to be reserved as a petrochemical feedstock and
for powering aircraft. It is conceivable that the US domentic oil sources
might support air commerce. Everything else will have to be redesigned,
including cars.
All here hope for the emergence of the real hydrogen technologies,
CF/LENR/CMNS and Blacklight Power. Mark Goldes has been making careful but
optimistic noises about his magnetic technology, but it is not in the open
after many years of work. As of 1Q 06, the path to even rudimentary useful
systems is not visible, although Blacklight Power is arguably ahead of the
pack. There are decades of vigorous entrepreneural effort before tlhere is
any significant impact on the trasportation system.
I'm not knocking Jed's visionary book or his long persistance in pushing the
enterprise forward as best he can, or those that are doggedly working at the
technology. As far as CF/LENR/CMNS is concerned, not only are really high
energy events still not reliably produced, it is not clear what the
**consumeables** in a working system are. Deuterium is cheap and available,
but what if the target is rapidly "consumed" with need for expensive
reactivation? Similar concerns exist for the Blacklight process. In many
cases, provision must be made for recovery of the catalyst, else the 'fuel'
gets costly.
So please don't knock a CEO who tells the story as he legitimately sees it.
The US energy infrastructure is a century old and shaped by oil. The way
forward is painful, but necessary.
Mike Carrell
