Hi, On 29-9-2011 8:27, Horace Heffner wrote:

Looking at the other side of the coin, the probability of catastrophicfailure, suppose there is a 0.1% chance per hour one of the E-cats canblow up spreading steam throughout the container. There is thus a0.999 probability of success, i.e. no explosion for one E-cat,operating for one hour. The probability that all 52 E-cats performsuccessfully for a 24 hour test period is then 0.999^(52*24) = .287.That means there is a 71.3% chance of an explosion during a 24 hour test.

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`Me thinks you are wrong. Your statistical probability calculation is`

`based upon the fact that the chance of a single Ecat exploding is`

`influenced by it's behaviour earlier, which of course is not true.`

`Statistically each Ecat has it's own independent chance of explosion at`

`any given moment which does not change over time.`

`With your probability of 0,1% chance per hour this would result for the`

`whole of 52 Ecats then in a chance of explosion at any given moment of 1`

`- (0.999^52) = .05 or 5%.`

`Looking even a bit more closer again this would mean that if the chance`

`of explosion is 0.1% per hour then the chance of explosion is 2,77e-7`

`per second at any given moment for a single Ecat, which would result for`

`52 Ecats into 1-((2,77e-7)^52) = 0,00001444434 or 0,00144% at any time.`

Kind regards, MoB