At 05:06 PM 9/26/2012, Jed Rothwell wrote:
Abd ul-Rahman Lomax <<mailto:a...@lomaxdesign.com>a...@lomaxdesign.com> wrote:
See, almost immediately, after the announcement, a huge number of
groups started to attempt replication.
People often say this, but I do not see much evidence for it. As far
as I know, during the first year roughly 150 to 200 groups attempted
to replicate. After a year roughly 100 succeeded. That's not a huge number.
That is not the whole story. I have come across many stories of
people who attempted replication, in one way or another, and who
never published. I'm trying to remember where I read that a major
fraction of the discretionary research budget of the U.S. was devoted
to investigating the effect, for a short time. It really was a huge
flap, I remember.
I may have mentioned before that we put $10,000 into palladium metal,
a Credit Suisse metal account, as quickly as we could, when I heard
about the work. I wasn't quite quick enough or I might have made a
little money, but I think we did break even.
I knew it was a long shot, that's one reason we didn't buy futures.
The metal wasn't going to collapse.... as it happened, if we had held
on to that palladium for substantially longer, we'd have cleaned up.
It was selling for about $130 per ounce when we bought. It went to
over $1000 per ounce at the peak. That was all from catalytic converter demand.
It was much more diffcult to replicate than expected. And the effect
was famously cantankerous, so cantankerous that I still consider it
quite possible that PdD will never be reliable, usuable for
commercial applications. Maybe it will. It's quite likely that we'll
need to understand it first.
NiH is enticing. But we don't know what the ash is, and, similarly,
the reality is still questionable. That is, there is plenty of room
for skepticism on NiH.
We know from PdD not to declare NiH impossible. But it's obviously
different. So what is it?
Again, *we don't know.*
Maybe it's space aliens. I'm kinda liking that explanation. I can
move it around and explain anything with it. Are they *friendly*
space aliens? I'd like to think so.
