Point taken. I don't know enough to comment on that. On Fri, 29 May 2026, 15:34 swkane, <[email protected]> wrote:
> With current LLM tech, yes, that appears to be the case. But maybe that's > only because no one yet has figured out how to get LLMs to self improve > without human AI researchers. And yes, LLM tech is at saturation. What do > you do training wise after consuming all published works plus the public > web? > > That wasn't my point though. My point was that only a fraction of > computing (AI, brute force search etc.) is devoted to improving AI or > computing hardware (the recursive self improvement that underpins a > computronium abyss). I'm pretty sure, for example, OpenAI's GPUs are being > used more to generate cute cat pictures than to improve OpenAI's models. > > > On Fri, May 29, 2026, 02:14 Quan Tesla <[email protected]> wrote: > >> If you're saying how, at this rate, AI cannot become more intelligent >> than the sum of the human-produced data it bases the development of its >> intelligence on, then I'll agree. >> >> A likely prediction might be: AI would soon reach the saturation point of >> its architectural intelligence. >> >> On Fri, 29 May 2026, 07:29 swkane, <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> I realized I didn't make a prediction. While it seems that the Earth and >>> human civilization is on the trajectory of a computronium abyss, there is a >>> critical point. Most computing today revolves around catering to human >>> attention, not improving computing substrates or predictive algorithms. So >>> the Dual Search that is central to an abyss is currently quite weak, but it >>> trundles on as a relatively small percentage of computing capacity is >>> devoted to it (e.g. CPU and other hardware research). >>> >>> The critical point is when most or close to all computing capacity goes >>> into the Dual Search. And whether that happens here on Earth ever hinges on >>> a number of things: >>> >>> Is the Dual Search a strong enough attractor for a super intelligence? >>> Or will an ASI do something else like maybe just shrink down to a much >>> smaller scale? >>> >>> Do humans go extinct before an ASI is launched and gets to the point of >>> devoting compute capacity to Dual Search? >>> >>> Will proposals to launch the Dual Search on a large scale get shot down >>> because it would be detectable by other civilizations, which could threaten >>> humans and Earth? >>> >>> So, unfortunately, I have no predictions per say, just more questions. >>> >>> On Thu, May 28, 2026, 10:06 Matt Mahoney <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> >>>> On Wed, May 27, 2026, 11:23 AM Quan Tesla <[email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>>> Abiogenesis is rare, but not improbable. All is relative. Suppose >>>>> quantum energy propagated at a factor of 1.8, where is the real potential >>>>> limit? At quaternion furcation? This sum scales beyond supermassive >>>>> calculations to observable infinity. >>>>> >>>> >>>> I don't understand what you mean. A group in Cambridge this February >>>> evolved a self replicating 45 nucleotide RNA strand called QT45 in a bath >>>> of activated trinucleotide triphosphate (RNA triples) in mildly alkaline >>>> eutectic ice, replicating both itself and its complement with 94% fidelity >>>> and 2.1% yield in 72 days. >>>> https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adt2760 >>>> >>>> This is the critical step in abiogenesis, going from non-life to the >>>> simplest form of life. The raw ingredients including nucleotides and simple >>>> sugars are produced from lightning and ultraviolet light from Earth's early >>>> atmosphere of hydrogen, methane, ammonia, and carbon dioxide, and also have >>>> been found in meteorites. >>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenesis >>>> >>>> Obviously the rate of abiogenesis is going to be much lower in a soup >>>> of thousands of random chemicals, including both left and right hand >>>> versions of chiral molecules that don't appear in biologically derived >>>> organisms. But if we can calculate the yield, then we will have a good idea >>>> of the size of the universe beyond the event horizon and the bit complexity >>>> of the program that describes it. >>>> >>>> -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] >>>> >>>> >>>> *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest>* > / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + > participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + > delivery options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> > Permalink > <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T7daa29d46d037f94-M83d2c8cd9fec791dbc1174c7> > ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T7daa29d46d037f94-Ma5251b7e62dc838d007e4733 Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
