With close to 9000 developers registered in android-developers forum, say 10% will actually submit. My NEW prediction - 900.
Peli wrote: > I think the page I mentioned ( http://code.google.com/android/adc_judging.html > ) was added very late in the game. I only found it recently. It > carries the following date at the bottom of the page: Build m5-rc15d - > 03 Apr 2008 16:19, but so do other pages that are older. To be fair, I > don't know when this page was added exactly. It may have been there > for a while, without me noticing it. (If someone had seen that page > already a month or two ago, please let me know!) > > But in case it was really only added a week or two ago, the people who > wrote the page had insight into the actual number of submissions so > far, and based on that it made sense to introduce a phase I that is > nowhere mentioned in the original ADC terms and conditions. > > It is also interesting that they did not introduce more phases (like > reduce the number first to 1000 entries, then to 200, and finally to > 50 - which would have indicated thousands of submissions...). > > So to get back to the claim above, if one estimates 100+ submissions > or 100-1000 this would be far better than the number suggested in "the > most accurate submission count tool", with 300 (*) being an even > closer guess for not completely trivial apps :-) At least, that is my > personal guess - others may guess differently. ;-) > > Peli > > (*) Note: 300 ~ sqrt(100*1000) also happens to be the geometric mean > for the reasonable range of 100 to 1000 submissions. > > On Apr 9, 1:56 pm, Philip <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > >> On Apr 9, 1:41 pm, Peli <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >> >> >>> The point is, if the number of submissions was 67, there was no need >>> to preselect the first 100... (regardless of whether this is a nice >>> number or not). >>> >> My point was that the number 100 was picked not based on any >> preliminary estimates or dynamics of the submission process. >> >> Philip >> > > > -- Thanks. Muthu Ramadoss http://mobeegal.in http://androidrocks.in http://intellibitz.com http://twitter.com/intellibitz http://linkedin.com/in/tellibitz http://slideshare.net/intellibitz http://groups.google.com/group/android-chennai +91 44 22476750 We develop innovative search solutions using LBS for Android. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Android Challenge" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/android-challenge?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
