Well, another year has passed for Brin-L Diplomacy. As always, you can
follow the progress of the game at:
http://www.onesite.org/observer/request.php3?judge=USIN&gamename=brinl1
First, the stats:
Tandu: 8 centers, gain of one.
Tytlal: 7 centers, no net change.
Gubru: 7 centers, gain of one.
Earthclan: 6 centers, loss of one.
Jophur: 4 centers, no net change.
Thennanin: 2 centers, loss of one.
The game has now reached a critical stage. Stalemate is fast
approaching. The Earthclan/Gubru alliance controls the northern
oceans, while the Tytlal/Tandu alliance controls the southern oceans.
The only way to move between the two is the Gibralter wormhole. But
that wormhole can be blocked by only a few ships. And unless fleets
can move through the wormhole, progress on land is fast becoming
impossible. Barring gross tactical errors, or a government in civil
disorder, the present lineup of territories can be defended
indefinately.
Only two things can break the stalemate. A stab could do it...but if
one member of an alliance stabs the other then they pretty much
guarantee victory for the other alliance. Not a good move if you want
to keep your health.
The other possibility are the two lone fleets still lurking in the
opposite oceans. The Thennanin and Jophur each have a fleet in the
enemy territory, and those fleets could cut support that is needed to
enforce the Gibralter blockade.
The Thennanin situation, though, is pretty much hopeless. The
Tandu/Tytlal alliance can easily bring enough force to bear on the
Italian peninsula to take their last two supply centers. And without
cities, the Thennanin fleet will be disbanded. But even if the
Thennanin can hold out for a while longer, they still have very little
chance of breaking the blockade. Earthclan can bring only one fleet to
bear on the straits, while the T/T alliance has two defenders. Cutting
one support is not enough, the attack will fail at 1:1.
The Jophur are in a much stronger position. The can hold their three
continental provinces indefinately, Earthclan simply cannot bring
enough leverage to bear to pry them out. And the Thennanin can't do
much, they are too far away and under too much pressure to lend even
one unit. Earthclan can easily chase the Jophur out of Liverpool, but
they don't have the forces to corner the fleet and destroy it. The way
to destroy the fleet is to prevent it from capturing another center.
Then the Jophur will be faced with an upleasant choice. Either disband
the fleet and resign themselves to stalemate, or disband one of the
crucial defending armies which could allow Earthclan to break through
the stalemate lines. Another possibility is to hand Spain over to the
T/T alliance, giving them another unit bearing on the Mid-Atlantic.
Either way is risky, and Earthclan should be able to scrape together 3
fleets to defend themselves. Stalemate looks more and more likely.
Only gross tactical blunders, civil disorder, or treachery seem able to
prevent it, unless a breakout can be accomplished in the next year. A
disturbing prospect indeed.
This reporter signs off for another year...hoping that the game will
still be alive next time...
=====
Darryl
Think Galactically -- Act Terrestrially
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