--- Erik Reuter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Specifically what do you disagree with? The argument > is fairly simple. > Their IS an age wave nearing (traditional) > retirement, surely you don't > dispute that? What do YOU think will happen when > they start selling all > of their stocks and bonds to support their > consumption in retirement? > "Erik Reuter" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Well, I think the empirical data that people do sell that much is actually a little shaky, for one, so I think that effect is overstated. Look at Japan, for example. Despite their rapid aging, they haven't actually seen a mass outflow of cash from their retirement savings system (which is the Japanese postal system, oddly enough, which pays absolutely miniscule interest rates and has well over a trillion dollars in assets, IIRC). Money is going to keep flowing into the market from other people as well. People are going to keep investing in their 401(k)s, and they will keep buying stocks. Take a look at the Goldman Sachs paper I posted a link to on capital market implications - I think the anlaytics there are pretty good, and it doesn't suggest that anything disastrous is going to happen to the American capital markets, at least. ===== Gautam Mukunda [EMAIL PROTECTED] "Freedom is not free" http://www.mukunda.blogspot.com __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! http://sbc.yahoo.com _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
