--- Erik Reuter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Agreed. But the economy isn't likely to be strong > during 2020-2040. I > think a depression (little or no growth, poverty, > very low wages or high > unemployment) is likely. That is what I mean by not > so hot. > > "Erik Reuter" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Yeah, I'm just very skeptical. Most of the financial models I've seen suggest that the US capital markets (as opposed to those of Europe) are likely to, at worst, only slightly cash-flow negative, and even that for a short period of time. So while I would agree that a market slowdown is fairly probable, I don't think that a depression or anything like that is terribly likely. I would guess that global economic growth will transition towards the US/China/India, certainly. If India ever gets its act together and does serious reform that order might change to India/US/China, but I'm not immensely optimistic on that, sadly. Nonetheless, given intelligent reforms _now_ I don't see a depression as terribly likely (although the chance of intelligent reforms now is fairly small, since Social Security privatization has gone out the window and Europe seems to be in even worse shape), and even if they have to wait a few years, the shock shouldn't be catastrophic. ===== Gautam Mukunda [EMAIL PROTECTED] "Freedom is not free" http://www.mukunda.blogspot.com __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! http://sbc.yahoo.com _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
