--- Russell Chapman <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Isn't median age a fairly irrelevant indicator here > - you could have > massive changes in demographics without affecting > median age. > If the US has a big group of people at or near > retirement age, plus > retired people who aren't dying within 10 yrs of > retirement as they used > to, and this is offset by a larger child population > (particularly as the > immigrants have a higher birth rate than the > anglo-saxons that make a > majority of the work force), aren't you looking at > only small increases > in median age but massive increases in people > outside the work force. ie > a much smaller proportion of the population being > productive?
Yes, but that's not actually what the population profile looks like. I don't have a link to the graph close at hand, but it's a fairly smooth line, enough to make median age a first rule-of-thumb estimate. The dependent/worker ratio is more useful, but, also a lot more complicated. > Is that a function of population, or people > finishing school? Is high > school compulsory in the US? Either way, it's > certainly going to improve > the situation. HS is effectively compulsory in the US (you can drop out at 16) - but in this case it's a function of population. > >If > >the US can hold things together from about > 2030-2040, > >it will be fine - the "Baby Boom Echo" will be > pouring > >into the workforce. > > > Shouldn't the children of the baby boomers already > be in the workforce? > What echo are you looking at in 2030? > > Cheers > Russell C. Sorry, that was phrased poorly. 2030-2040 are the crisis point (really earlier in that period) because of the combination of when people will be withdrawing the most from their accounts and the younger workers will be saving the least. In 2030 I will be 51 - just beginning my prime saving years, while the rest of the "Echo" will be younger still. By 2040 I will be 61, and at the peak of my saving years - and so pouring money into the capital markets at a rate that I can't currently manage. That's what I was referring to. ===== Gautam Mukunda [EMAIL PROTECTED] "Freedom is not free" http://www.mukunda.blogspot.com __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! http://sbc.yahoo.com _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
