--- In [EMAIL PROTECTED], Erik Reuter <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Agreed. But the economy isn't likely to be strong during > 2020-2040. I think a depression (little or no growth, poverty, > very low wages or high unemployment) is likely.
High unemployment would strike me very unlikely, since a large number of retirees will have a positive impact on demand. i.e. there will be more consumers of labor, and fewer suppliers. I don't see how this will produce high unemployment. Moreover, Gautam's link, which projects population trends for the next 50 years, shows the US working age population (definied rather narrowly at ages 20-60 years) increasing steadly by about 30% from 2000 to 2050. That growth alone should preclude an outright prolonged contraction of GDP. Indeed, in the long run, economic growth is primarily determined by growths in productivity. I would expect the pace of technological advancement to be unaffected by these demographics - which would also argue against a depression. Lastly, remember that monetary policy can be used to balance out the effects of ageing on liquidity of assets. JDG _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
