--- Dan Minette <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> How likely is it that the French deliberately set
> Bush ?
> 
> Dan M.

Ah, now _there_ you have the billion dollar question. 
I'm suspicious enough of the French to say it's
possible, but I don't think it's likely.  I frankly
don't think that the French government is competent
enough to go through the chain of logic that it would
require - i.e. The Americans _are_ going to invade, we
can't stop them, therefore we can supply false
intelligence, which they will probably use, which we
can embarass them with later.  French policy seems, to
me, to be more easily ascribed to a combination of
malice and incompetence than the sort of Machiavellian
genius that would require.  They haven't shown any
signs of that since Austerlitz, so it seems unlikely
it would pop up in 2002 all of a sudden.

They would also be taking a terrible risk - the total
collapse of intelligence cooperation between the
US/Britain/their allies and France.  That's not
something that anyone wants, not even de Villepin.

But it's certainly _possible_.  It would be consistent
with the simplest possible explanation of French
motivations (i.e. that the driving force of French
foreign policy is the weakening of the United States).
 It just seems, to me, unlikely that they were
thinking that far ahead.  Definitely something worth
thinking about.

=====
Gautam Mukunda
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
"Freedom is not free"
http://www.mukunda.blogspot.com

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