----- Original Message -----
From: jon hall <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Monday, January 19, 2004 1:38 pm
Subject: Re: Bleak future for videogamers?
> Yup...Everquest for example is 8 or so cd's with all the expansions,
> but you can go to their online store...purchase the expansion, then
> launch the game and it will be automatically downloaded.
>
> I got like 3 years of use out of Quake3 for $40, but I would have
> paid 10 times that over a period of time for extra content and good
> managed servers.
>
> Personally I've always wondered why I have to go to the store to
> actually purchase an online only game in the first place.
>
> --
> jon
> [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
> Monday, January 19, 2004, 3:08:42 PM, you wrote:
> JD> I definitely think that it will happen sooner or later.
> However the
> JD> question to me isn't distribution, it's ownership vrs. Pay-as-
> you-go.
>
> JD> As to the distribution we're already seeing less of a reliance
> on the
> JD> physical media (the song- and file-swapping networks are
> indicative of
> JD> this). The issue now isn't media, it's speed and reliability.
> I can go out
> JD> and buy a CD. Or I can download it. It takes longer to
> download it and my
> JD> continued ownership of it is dependent on the quality of my
> storage media
> JD> (my hard drive). I'm also limited by the size of my personal
> storage.
> JD> As both the speed of distribution and reliability/size of
> storage increases
> JD> I'm sure that reliance on the physical media will also fade.
> An closely
> JD> analogous market is the cell-phone software market. You buy
> ring-tones,
> JD> games, software, etc for your phone and never expect physical
> media. This
> JD> is, to be sure, because the cost and file sizes are very small
> but the
> JD> concept is similar.
>
> JD> Another is the financial (and other) industries move towards
> paperlessJD> online statements. Video on demand is making
> noticeable headway into the
> JD> video rental markets in areas where it's available. We've
> already seen a
> JD> software industry wide move to drop paper manuals (and their
> costs) from
> JD> packaging and replace it with online help (or at the worst,
> simple PDF
> JD> versions of the manuals).
>
> JD> Basically many of those things that can be replaced by online
> delivery are
> JD> being replaced. Slowly to be sure, but they are. In all
> successful cases
> JD> the delivery mechanism is effectively instantaneous.
>
> JD> That's not to be extreme about it and say that NO physical
> media will exist.
> JD> It may not COMPLETELY supplant it (what's ever 100%?), but I
> think we'll
> JD> definitely reach a point were obtaining physical media will be
> a rare,
> JD> difficult to request. Like trying to find a recent release
> on vinyl.
>
> JD> I think we'll get there eventually, but it may take longer
> than some people
> JD> predict (I've heard "two or three years" for example). I
> would think, if
> JD> current trends in connectivity, speed, and storage stay strong
> we'll be
> JD> fully in this phase in say, 15 years. I expect before then
> for some basic
> JD> architecture level changes to occur - Steam may be a major
> prod there. For
> JD> example I think we'll see games designed for streaming play
> soon. Instead
> JD> of downloading 700meg and then installing you'll download 20
> meg and start
> JD> to play while the rest of the game content streams in from the
> downloadJD> service.
>
> JD> This is actually pretty easy to do now (the game engine is
> generally one of
> JD> the smaller overall chunks of the game with the art and in-
> game stuff next
> JD> followed finally by voice and music and then finally by video
> cut-scenes).
> JD> The technology is already moving in that direction to diminish
> load times
> JD> from CD - it's not a stretch to see it expanded to deal with
> longer times.
>
> JD> Anyway the question isn't distribution (to me) it's ownership.
> Are we going
> JD> to pay $50 for game and "keep it" or are we going to pay $5 a
> day (or
> JD> whatever) to play a game? I prefer the former, greatly, but
> the latter is a
> JD> good option for those that rent frequently.
>
> JD> In short I think that both options will be available. Pay a
> large, one-time
> JD> fee to play unlimited (just like buying a game today) or pay
> smaller,JD> periodic fees to play a game for a short while (just
> like renting a game
> JD> today). In either case I think the trend is moving towards
> online delivery.
> JD> I also think that additional funding will be gained via
> additions and
> JD> enhancements to games.
>
> JD> For example I might pay $50 to play a game as often as I want
> but then need
> JD> to pay $10 more to get new levels as they come out. However
> if I chose to
> JD> pay $10 for a weekend of play when the game came out I could,
> later, pay
> JD> that $10 again to rent the fully updated game.
>
> JD> Personally I tend to play games to death - getting everything
> singleJD> possible thing in them. But then I never play then
> again - there's just too
> JD> much coming out. I also tend to play just one game at a time,
> finishing it
> JD> before starting another.
>
> JD> I might get 100 hours of entertainment from "Final Fantasy X" -
> which means
> JD> it's economical (in our hypothetical future world) to buy the
> game outright
> JD> (or, considering the delivery, a unlimited license for the
> game). However
> JD> another truly great game like "Silent Hill 3" may only take 8
> hours to
> JD> finish. For this a weekend license would probably suffice -
> but I might
> JD> rent it again at some point just to show a friend that cool
> scene in that
> JD> mall.
>
> JD> I would, of course, keep (just as I do today) all of my
> progress and in-game
> JD> goodies in all the games I play on personal media. If the
> delivery were
> JD> instantaneous (and didn't require me to go outside) I could
> easily see
> JD> myself renting the vast majority of my titles.
>
> JD> Lastly I also think that for this to become a success certain
> issues need to
> JD> be dealt with. For example portability. I should be able
> (and really have
> JD> to be able for the process to successful) to play that game on
> any console I
> JD> want: in the family room, in the bedroom and at a friends
> house. Another
> JD> issue that I think is coming soon is buyer remorse issues.
> Technology can
> JD> track my usage so it should be intelligent about it.
>
> JD> Considering no physical media if I rent a movie and never
> watch it a good
> JD> system would extend me credit. If I rent a video game for the
> weekendJD> (again assuming online delivery) and can't play it I
> shouldn't pay. I'm
> JD> not, like I would be with physical media, prevent other
> customers from
> JD> access the same content so the traditional restrictions should
> be loosened.
>
> JD> Anyways I think we'll be getting more and more things online
> and see fewer
> JD> and fewer examples of physical distribution media as
> networking tech
> JD> improves.
>
> JD> Jim Davis
>
>
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