That information is still very limited and ambiguous though Brian. Adobe are
only going to be aware of direct customers migrating to OSS or those who
announce it on twitter or forums, they wont be aware of customers using
shared hosting who don't own a cf license and are not in contact with adobe
and do not use lists or groups.
This is a very large proportion of the user base, probably the majority of
it in fact.
We have customers all the time moving their hosting because they rewrite the
site in PHP, and  this is usually just because they got a new developer who
doesn't know/hates cf or because they wanted to save themselves some money
by using Joomla, Wordpress, Drupal or some other super popular free OSS app
that does everything they need out of the box.
The move to Railo so far for our customers has only been so that they have
run their own VPS without the CF license cost.

Russ



On Tue, Jan 25, 2011 at 4:00 PM, Brian Kotek <brian...@gmail.com> wrote:

>
> The reality is that Railo and Open BlueDragon are not growing the market
> for
> CFML. No one is *switching to* CFML from PHP, .NET, Ruby, or Java because
> of
> the OSS engines. To the extent that this might happen, it is an
> infinitesimally small number of projects. If any of the OSS engines have
> data to contradict that assertion, I'd love to see it.
>
> The OSS engines, particularly Railo, were initially touted as a gateway for
> people working on other platforms, which is why their partnership with
> JBoss
> created such hope and expectation. This has not happened. What *has*
> happened is that a small but noticeable number of existing ColdFusion users
> have moved to the OSS engines. As an Adobe Community Professional, I'm
> privy
> to more "internal" information and direct communication with the Adobe
> employees. The primary drain on the Adobe ColdFusion user base is people
> moving to one of the OSS CFML engines. Not people leaving for PHP or .NET.
> People do leave for other platforms, and new people do come in, but that
> just means that the total size of the CFML community as a whole is fairly
> static in size. And now that total pie is being divided between CF, Railo,
> and OBD.
>
> I personally like most of the individual people involved in the OSS
> projects. I've known many of them for years. So this is not personal at
> all.
> But if the biggest drain on the ColdFusion user base is coming from the OSS
> engines, then Adobe is absolutely right to treat them as their top
> competitors. To NOT do this would be foolish. If the OSS engines were
> actually pulling in droves of new users from other platforms, this whole
> dynamic would probably be much different. But that is simply not the case.
>
> Brian
>
>
> On Fri, Jan 21, 2011 at 9:59 AM, Larry Lyons <larrycly...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> >
> > The point being FOSS complements and expands the market for CFML, and by
> > extension Adobe. If anything Adobe should be promoting the FOSS engines
> as a
> > low cost entry point. That is something it has been criticized about for
> > years. Once the customer realizes how much more is available with the
> Adobe
> > engine they will make that sale. Its a model that's been followed in
> quite a
> > few successful operations, such as Zend with PHP and RedHat with Linux
> and
> > JBoss. In both these cases having an open source entry  point has not
> hurt
> > their bottom line.
> >
> >
> >
>
>
> 

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