Let's talk about the bell curve. There are early adopters (us) who are
excited and ready to buy or build an EV. There are some less risky
adopters who are jumping in, too, as is evident from the rising sales
numbers. But the vast majority - the hump in the bell curve are
waiting.
Waiting for what? It doesn't really matter what they say - as you can
see there are a number of various opinions and statements from people.
The only thing that matters is that they are followers. They won't do
something until they feel like everyone else is doing it. That's true
for any product, behavior, etc. in humanity. When the masses start
catching on there'll be a huge woosh - the rising edge of the bell
curve.
With cell phones, I was part of the masses - not an early adopter. I
had my reasons - poor voice quality, too many dropped calls. They were
legit reasons. But the underlying reason is I had a land line and it
worked well enough and I didn't want to have to deal with a new set of
issues or problems. Why rock the boat? When "everyone" had a cell
phone, I got one too.
To finish the bell curve, there the last stragglers. They will keep
their old technology (or behavior) until they are forced out. Can't buy
a replacement part, product, etc. Ridiculed for wearing bell bottom
pants. Meanwhile, a new technology is already on the rise with its new
set of early adopters :)
Peri
------ Original Message ------
From: "Peter Eckhoff via EV" <ev@lists.evdl.org>
To: "Electric Vehicle Discussion List" <ev@lists.evdl.org>
Sent: 27-May-15 9:03:51 AM
Subject: Re: [EVDL] Design News: Why Aren't Electrical Cars Sales
Better? It's the battery.
I just finished reading the article and I came away with the idea that
the author could have substituted personal computer for battery, or
laptop for battery, or any of the other technological wonders that only
existed in the minds of Buck Roger / Star Trek fans. The question has
always been one of when do I jump in and trade my abacus for a PC or PC
for a laptop, or slower model for a faster model?
It's getting there. Right **now** the Leaf has a range of 75 miles.
The 2017 model of the Bolt, Leaf and Model E are supposed to have
ranges of around 200 miles. Do I buy a Leaf today and borrow an ICE to
reach an Atlantic Ocean beach? Do I wait until 2017 when I could reach
a beach with a newer EV? Do I wait until 2018 when some poor driver
has his or her car "totaled" and I can buy that pack for dimes on the
dollar?
Have you ever noticed how some of these titles are inflammatory? The
author could have gone to:
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
and written how EV sales are rising rapidly and we would be replying
to:
Re:[EVDL] Design News: Why are Electric Car Sales Rising Rapidly?
If he had plotted out the sales figures he would have seen EV sales
taking off even in the face of relatively low gasoline prices and so-so
economic activity:
USA Worldwide
March 2015: 10,341 41,988
March 2014: 9,650 24,267
March 2013: 7982 N/A
March 2012: 3815 N/A
March 2011: 906 N/A
He does have a point about the batteries but my guess is that he wrote
the article in a trollish manner for clicks and views. I think he gets
it but he does have to put food on the table.
Now for a big question, if the 2017 Leaf pack stays the same volume
wise and the range goes from 75 to say 225 miles, what would happen if
that pack chemistry were transferred in kind to the Tesla Model S?
Ans: ~800 miles on a charge EV??? Suddenly, Gulf Coast beaches are in
range as well as Cape Cod beaches from a central North Carolina
starting point. Is this just a pleasant thought nearing reality or am
I just wishful thinking??? Let's see him write an article about that.
Would a $6K 2015 Leaf replacement pack still cost $6K for the 2017
model Leaf? If people realize this, would current EV sales begin to
drop in anticipation? If I buy a 2015 Leaf today, would I be able to
trade up to a 2017 chemistry pack or pack?
Hopefully some of this takes away some of that "in your face" -ness of
the article.
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