Le 11-déc.-05, à 11:58, Stathis Papaioannou a écrit :
You find yourself alone in a room with a light that alternates
red/green with a period of one minute. A letter in the room informs
you that every other minute, 10^100 copies of you are created and run
in parallel for one minute, then shut down. The transition between the
two states (low measure/ high measure) corresponds with the change in
the colour of the light, and you task is to guess which colour
corresponds to which state.
The problem is, whether the light is red or green, you could argue
that you are vastly more likely to be sampled from the 10^100 group.
You might decide to say that *both* red and green correspond to the
larger group, because if you say this 10^100 copies in the multiverse
will be correct and only one copy will be wrong. But clearly, this
tyranny of the majority strategy brings you no closer to the truth. If
you tossed a coin, at least you would have a 1/2 chance of being
Yes but this is due to the "shut down". (if I got correctly your
experiment).The probabilities can be taken only on the stories without
dead-ends, and I guess you consider the shut down as sort of "absolute
I know this is hard to believe, but apparently we are "conscious" only
because we belong to a continuum of infinite never ending stories ...
I don't believe this, but then that's what the lobian machine's
"guardian angel" G* says about that: true and strictly unbelievable.
Do you accept that your argument won't go through if the shut down are