On 1/27/07, Stathis Papaioannou <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> According to the RSSA, *nothing* happens from your POV when you turn 50.
> Given that you are already alive, you are going to experience the moments
> of
> your life in order and each one will last the same amount of time, however
> many copies of you are extant. The significance of measure is that if in
> the next
> moment there will be n copies of you who will have experience x and 2n
> copies
> which will have experience y, then you will have twice as much chance of
> experiencing y as of experiencing x. The value of n cannot make any
> difference;
> if it did, then an empirical test would be possible demonstrating your
> absolute
> measure at each stage of life.

I don't think ASSA (At least my understanding of it) predicts there would be
noticeable difference to the observer on their 50th birthday.  It does
not predict for example, that none of the prior or
later years are experienced, in fact they certainly are experienced because
they exist with a postive measure.  What ASSA implies is that simply a
statistical argument, which is this: The observer moment you currently
experience is more likely a common one than an uncommon one.  For example,
at 33 this observer could think according to ASSA, I am experiencing this
observer moment, therefore I am likely to be a common observer moment.  At
33 this would be false, but then statistics are never 100% accurate.  Now
consider the observer holds on to ASSA and so when he is 50 he still assumes
that his currently perceived observer moment is probable.  At this time
there are zillions of him, and zillions of him are correct.  This
large number of observer moments that are correct vastly outweigh the
number of
observer moments that were incorrect, and hence ASSA is a reasonable belief,
as it leads to a true conclusion more often than not.


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