2008/10/30 Bruno Marchal <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:

> To make a prediction on the future from the past you have to remember
> the past (or at least some relevant part of the past). If you allow
> (partial) amnesia, it could depend on many things including the type
> of computations allowing the amnesia: it makes almost no sense a
> priori. It would be like asking what is probability to get six
> (subjectively or as first person experience, like we have to do
> assuming comp) when throwing a dice knowing in advance that once you
> have thrown the dice you will forget that you have thrown the dice!
> So I am not sure the question can even make sense. I said to George
> Levy a long time ago (in this list) that all first person
> probabilities in self-multiplication experiments presuppose that the
> level of substitution (of brain material) has been chosen correctly,
> and thus serendipitously given that we cannot known for sure our own
> substitution level.

Your teleportation thought experiments seem quite straightforward and
intuitive to me: if I am copied to two separate locations, then I
should have a 1/2 first person probability of finding myself in one or
other location. We can assume for the sake of the experiment that the
copying is close enough to perfect, and dismiss the possibility that
the copies will be zombies. So, will the probability of finding myself
in each location still be 1/2 if one of the copies is perfect but the
other is 99% or 50% or 1% faithful, by whatever criterion you care to
define these percentages?

Stathis Papaioannou

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