Interesting video. My comments are below.
On Sat, Dec 24, 2011 at 5:42 AM, alexalex <alexmka...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> I watched this video on youtube where Nick Bostrom was talking about
> the Fermi paradox :
> 1. If the great filter is between having a planet and a civilization
> like ours then it's very unlikely for us to develop into a super-
The great filter might simply be a belief in non-interference. Many people
think this is unlikely because they believe there is no reason a bunch of
random alien civilizations would agree on this, but I think nearly all
alien civilizations will reach a state of super-intelligence before it
achieves interstellar travel. It's been said that when intelligent people
disagree it is due to a difference in data. If we assume these
civilizations are super-intelligent, then all or most of them reaching a
common consensus becomes much less likely.
> 2. If the great filter is between ourselves and a hypothetical mega-
> rare-super-civilization then doesn't that imply the following?
> a) If DA is true then every observer should reason as if they were a
> radom sample drawn from the set of all observers
> b) If we a priori consider that a highly more advanced civilization
> than us is highly more numerous in conscious beings than we are today
> at our peak, considering DA must be true, then :
> c) Shouldn't that random observer consider itself in the most numerous
> civilization and, very likely, on the most advanced of them ?
Perhaps. But it is impossible to rule out the possibility that we are
already members of such a civilization, who choose to momentarily forget
our true identity.
> So ours is one of the most advanced civilizations.
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