Hi Russell Standish 

Thanks.  Causality has enormous importance, especially
if you can differentiate it from correspondence. 

I sometimes think that the rise of the stock market is 
causally related to the price of gold.  Or the value of the dollar.
Historical inflation of the value of the dollar at least corresponds
to the tonnage of gold mined over the years.

Politicians, depending on which point of view they want
you to believe, generally make false claims of causality. 
A particular case in point is the question of whether
tax cuts enrich the economy.

And I wonder if there are studies that differentiate 
global warming/ CO2 as a correlation or is casual.

Another one is whether Israeli attacks on Palestine
are cause by Palestinian attacks on Israel or
vice versa.  A timeline study of attacks should show this.

 


[Roger Clough], [rclo...@verizon.net]
11/30/2012 
"Forever is a long time, especially near the end." -Woody Allen

----- Receiving the following content ----- 
From: Russell Standish 
Receiver: everything-list 
Time: 2012-11-01, 17:59:10
Subject: Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems


The distinction between correlation and causality occasionally comes
up in this discussion group, so I thought this paper might be of
interest.

Disclaimer - I haven't read it, but it is published in Science, and
one of the authors (Robert May) I have the utmost respect for.

Let me know if you can't find a non paywalled version. I will probably
be able to get it from my institution's e-library.


----- Forwarded message from Complexity Digest Administration 
<comdigad...@turing.iimas.unam.mx> -----



Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems

  Identifying causal networks is important for effective policy and management 
recommendations on climate, epidemiology, financial regulation, and much else. 
We introduce a method, based on nonlinear state space reconstruction, that can 
distinguish causality from correlation. It extends to nonseparable weakly 
connected dynamic systems (cases not covered by the current Granger causality 
paradigm). The approach is illustrated both by simple models (where, in 
contrast to the real world, we know the underlying equations/relations and so 
can check the validity of our method) and by application to real ecological 
systems, including the controversial sardine-anchovy-temperature problem.


Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems
George Sugihara, Robert May, Hao Ye, Chih-hao Hsieh, Ethan Deyle, Michael 
Fogarty, Stephan Munch

Science 26 October 2012:
Vol. 338 no. 6106 pp. 496-500
http://unam.us4.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=0eb0ac9b4e8565f2967a8304b&id=9e44b3450a&e=d38efa683e

See it on Scoop.it 
(http://www.scoop.it/t/papers/p/3161484398/detecting-causality-in-complex-ecosystems)
 , via Papers (http://www.scoop.it/t/papers)



-- 

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Prof Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile)
Principal, High Performance Coders
Visiting Professor of Mathematics hpco...@hpcoders.com.au
University of New South Wales http://www.hpcoders.com.au
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