Hi Russell Standish Thanks. Causality has enormous importance, especially if you can differentiate it from correspondence.
I sometimes think that the rise of the stock market is causally related to the price of gold. Or the value of the dollar. Historical inflation of the value of the dollar at least corresponds to the tonnage of gold mined over the years. Politicians, depending on which point of view they want you to believe, generally make false claims of causality. A particular case in point is the question of whether tax cuts enrich the economy. And I wonder if there are studies that differentiate global warming/ CO2 as a correlation or is casual. Another one is whether Israeli attacks on Palestine are cause by Palestinian attacks on Israel or vice versa. A timeline study of attacks should show this. [Roger Clough], [[email protected]] 11/30/2012 "Forever is a long time, especially near the end." -Woody Allen ----- Receiving the following content ----- From: Russell Standish Receiver: everything-list Time: 2012-11-01, 17:59:10 Subject: Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems The distinction between correlation and causality occasionally comes up in this discussion group, so I thought this paper might be of interest. Disclaimer - I haven't read it, but it is published in Science, and one of the authors (Robert May) I have the utmost respect for. Let me know if you can't find a non paywalled version. I will probably be able to get it from my institution's e-library. ----- Forwarded message from Complexity Digest Administration <[email protected]> ----- Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems Identifying causal networks is important for effective policy and management recommendations on climate, epidemiology, financial regulation, and much else. We introduce a method, based on nonlinear state space reconstruction, that can distinguish causality from correlation. It extends to nonseparable weakly connected dynamic systems (cases not covered by the current Granger causality paradigm). The approach is illustrated both by simple models (where, in contrast to the real world, we know the underlying equations/relations and so can check the validity of our method) and by application to real ecological systems, including the controversial sardine-anchovy-temperature problem. Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems George Sugihara, Robert May, Hao Ye, Chih-hao Hsieh, Ethan Deyle, Michael Fogarty, Stephan Munch Science 26 October 2012: Vol. 338 no. 6106 pp. 496-500 http://unam.us4.list-manage2.com/track/click?u=0eb0ac9b4e8565f2967a8304b&id=9e44b3450a&e=d38efa683e See it on Scoop.it (http://www.scoop.it/t/papers/p/3161484398/detecting-causality-in-complex-ecosystems) , via Papers (http://www.scoop.it/t/papers) -- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile) Principal, High Performance Coders Visiting Professor of Mathematics [email protected] University of New South Wales http://www.hpcoders.com.au ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list?hl=en. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list?hl=en.
