Hi Bruno

>> I don't see why. There is a chance of 1/2 to feel oneself in M, and of 1/2 
>> to feel oneself in W, but the probability is 1 (assuming comp, the protocol, 
>> etc.) to find oneself alive. 

This begs the question. And the probability of finding oneself alive is 1 in 
both your view and mine.

>> P(W v M) = P(W) + P(M) as W and M are disjoint incompatible (first person) 
>> events. 

That they are disjoint is fine. And they are incompatible only insofar as no 
person, Bruno-Helsinki, Bruno-Washington or Bruno-Moscow, in the experiment 
will experience both simultaneously. But Bruno-Helsinki will experience each 
outcome.

Whats missing here is a discussion about what conditions are required in order 
to induce a feeling of subjective uncertainty in Bruno-Helsinki. I think what 
is required is some ignorance over the details of the situation, but there are 
none. Bruno-Helsinki knows all there is to know about the situation that is 
relevant.

He knows that in his future there will be two 'copies' of him; one in Moscow, 
one in Washington. By 'yes doctor' he knows that both these 'copies' are 
related to him in a manner that preserves identity in exactly the same way. 
There will be no sense in which Bruno-Washington is more Bruno-Helsinki than 
Bruno-Moscow. That is the essence of 'yes doctor'. So, at the point in time 
when Bruno-Helsinki is asked what he expects to see, there are no other 
relevant facts. Consequently there is no room for subjective uncertainty.

It would therefore be absurd of Bruno-Helsinki to assign a probability of 50% 
to either outcome. It would be like saying only one of the future Bruno's 
shares a relationship of identity with him. This is why I say your analysis 
violates the yes doctor axiom.

This can be contrasted with a response from either of the copies when asked the 
same question. If asked before opening their eyes, both Bruno-Washington and 
Bruno-Moscow are ignorant of their location. Ofcourse, apart from the fact that 
asking the question at this point is far too late for Bruno-Helsinki, this is 
not a relevent fact for him. Because he has no doubt that an identity 
maintaining version of him will be in each location.

I have to admit, what with you being a professor and all that, I did begin to 
feel like I was going mad. Luckily, the other day I found a paper by Hillary 
Greaves "Understanding Deutcsh's Probability in a Deterministic Multiverse". 
Section 4.1 discusses subjective uncertainty in a generalized setting and 
argues for the exact same conclusions I have been reaching just intuitively. 
This doesn't make either of us right or wrong, but it gives me confidence to 
know that subjective uncertainty is not a foregone conclusion as I sometimes 
have felt it has been presented on this list. It is an analysis that has been 
peer reviewed and deemed worthy of publishing and warrants more than the hand 
waving scoffs some academics here have been offering.

All the best

Date: Wed, 9 Oct 2013 15:36:12 -0700
From: meeke...@verizon.net
To: everything-list@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: What gives philosophers a bad name?


  
    
  
  
    On 10/9/2013 10:35 AM, John Clark
      wrote:

    
    
      On Tue, Oct 8, 2013 at 1:19 PM, meekerdb <meeke...@verizon.net>
        wrote:

        
          
            

            > How do you explain quantum
              mechanical probabilities in the Many Worlds
              interpretation?

            
            

            
            Not very well, assigning probabilities is
              unquestionably the weakest part of the Many Worlds theory.
              True, Everett derived the Born Rule from his ideas, but
              not in a way that feels entirely satisfactory, not that
              its competitors can do better. The Many Worlds
              interpretation is the best bad explanation of why Quantum
              Mechanics works.

            
          
        
      
    
    

    So you recognize that it has the same difficulties with probability
    and personal identity as Bruno's teleportation.

    

    Brent

  





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