If Helsinki man understands the situation, he will assign a 100%
probability to him being duplicated and ending in both places. Similarly a
physicist who believes in MWI will assign a 100% probability to him
splitting and observing all possible outcomes. This is not, however, how
people normally view these matters. The physicist feels that he had a (say)
50% chance of him observing spin-up despite his knowledge of the MWI, and I
guess Helsinki man feels the same way about arriving in Moscow, if only
because our brains are "wired" to think in terms of the single universe
view. I think Bruno's take on this is acceptable in terms of how we think
about things in everyday life.
Once the duplication has been performed, one copy of the man *then* has a
50% chance of being Moscow man, and his (spurious) sense of always only
being the single unique copy of himself would lead him to feel that this
was the chance beforehand. So it's fair for Bruno to ask Helsinki man how
he estimates his chances of arriving in Moscow, assuming "folk psychology"
is involved (ditto for the physicist).
However this is only really quibbling about the fact that our everyday
attitude often doesn't cover the realities of how the universe works.
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