On Wed, Nov 13, 2013 at 7:49 PM, LizR <lizj...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Obviously there is more CO2 in the air than there has been for a very long
> time, and obviously the climate has changed somewhat in the last couple of
> decades (warmest on record, again and again). It's hard to prove the
> connection, of course, but the circumstantial evidence is overwhelming. Of
> 13,950 peer-reviewed climate articles published between 1991 and 2012, 24
> rejected global warming. It's a little thing we've come up with to try and
> understand the world. We call it "science".

This is just sophisticated arguing from authority, not science.
Science is the process of formulating a theory with which you can make
predictions and then testing these predictions. If the predictions are
incorrect, the theory is falsified. The number of papers that say
something and the amount of consensus is irrelevant in the face of
experimental falsification. Science is not democracy, it's empiricism.
All scientific revolutions started as minority views.

There is overwhelming evidence in favour of the theory of evolution
because of the number of predictions it got right, not because of the
amount of papers that say that it is a spiffy theory. The theory of
anthropogenic global warming does not look so stellar because it
failed to predict the current cooling period.

Given the tremendous human cost of reducing CO2 emissions, the
rational thing to do is to weigh the probability of the theory being
correct against this cost. I don't have an answer here, nor am I
qualified to give it. I know a bit about complex systems modelling and
this makes me very skeptical of "overwhelming evidences", especially
in the face of surprising observables against the models.

> Obviously fossil fuel will run out anyway, so even without climate change
> we'd have to do something.

Yes, but that something we have to do is very different depending on
whether or not we have to cut CO2 emissions and, more importantly, one
of the path leads to immense human suffering.

Then there are the geo-engineering ideas that John mentioned. They
appear to be ignored. This makes the entire thing start to smell a bit
of religious moralism.

Telmo.

> I think nuclear is a good short term solution,
> for sure. Especially subcritical reactors.
>
>
>
> On 14 November 2013 06:06, Telmo Menezes <te...@telmomenezes.com> wrote:
>>
>> On Wed, Nov 13, 2013 at 5:54 PM, John Clark <johnkcl...@gmail.com> wrote:
>> > On Wed, Nov 13, 2013 at 11:15 AM, Telmo Menezes <te...@telmomenezes.com>
>> > wrote:
>> >
>> >>
>> >> > I would like to point out that I did not write the first two
>> >> > sentences
>> >> you cite and I was being sarcastic when I wrote the third one.
>> >
>> >
>> > Sorry.
>>
>> No worries.
>>
>> Telmo.
>>
>> >   John K Clark
>> >
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