On Sat, Dec 13, 2014 at 10:44 AM, John Clark <[email protected]> wrote: > > On Sat, Dec 13, 2014 meekerdb <[email protected]> wrote: > >> >> > > And deniers are luddite morons who think we can fix global warming on >> short notice when it gets a lot worse but we can't screw it up in the >> meantime. >> > > For heaven's sake, by 2100 we'll have full Nanotechnology and Quantum > Computers at our disposal, or rather the human race's AI successors will. > Global warming is small potatoes. > > On this I agree with John. If anyone can be accused of luddism, its the "technological singularity deniers", who believe technology progresses at a constant linear rate and are ignorant of projections of the coming intelligence explosion. The technological singularity will happen well before 2100, and if it doesn't, it will be because we've already wiped ourselves out.
For those unfamiliar with the concept, I recommend this as a good primer: http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense “intuitive linear” view. So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate). The “returns,” such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There’s even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity — technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light. Jason -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
