On 30 Sep 2017 6:03 p.m., "John Clark" <[email protected]> wrote:

On Sat, Sep 30, 2017 at 7:08 AM, David Nyman <[email protected]> wrote:

​> ​
> Actually there have been some quite interesting discussions outside the JC
> echo chamber, I think, Quentin. I don't bother with the troll,
>

​So you believe Quentin's ideas are so brilliant that nobody could
sincerely disagree with them and I have written hundreds of posts over the
years defending a position I did not believe had any value. Hmm... I bet
you voted for Trump.  ​

​> ​
> although I occasionally read your contributions because the degree of, no
> doubt understandable, vitriol you have accumulated towards his attitude to
> the discussion is quite entertaining.


​Entertaining in the way intestinal worms are entertaining perhaps.

​> ​
> Personally I've never been able to understand all the fuss. In a world
> with duplication machines we'd just have to accept that other people might
> have a legitimate claim to be the successors of the same predecessor as
> ourselves.
>

​If you know there will be more than one successor then​

​asking the predecessor what one and only one thing will happen to that
predecessor
​ would be a brain dead dumb thing to do.


> ​> ​
> But that couldn't possibly have any bearing on the necessity of finding
> ourselves to be one single individual at any given moment.
>

No bearing? You
​ ​
just
​ ​
said "finding ourselves" and that's plural, so when you ask "what one and
only one thing" what the hell are you asking and who are you asking it of?


I'd reread what you said before you even think about calling other people
stupid. I'm sure you're capable of substituting 'oneself' if that's what's
bothering you. We find ourselves to be only one person at a time. In fact,
that is the entire point that you seem forever intent on preserving the
pretence of failing to understand.

In any case I didn't in point of fact ask you anything since asking you
anything is manifestly futile.

​ ​
Some very stupid people, such as those that think Quentin
​ ​
is clever, believe it's like a coin flip, but it's nothing like a coin
flip! Today I don't  know if
​ ​
the flip
​ ​
will
​ ​
end up
​ ​
heads or tails and the best I can do is assign probabilities, but tomorrow
I won't need probabilities at all,
​ ​
tomorrow
​ ​
I can state with 100% certainty
​ ​
exactly how it turned out; however with Bruno's thought experiment tomorrow
after its completed everybody still will be as ignorant of the answer as
they were the day before because
​ ​
it's still not clear what the question was.


> ​>​
>  I suppose it's just barely within the bounds of possibility that some
> poor soul might be incapable of understanding what is entailed in BEING
> someone as distinct from DESCRIBING someone. But if that were indeed the
> case one could only shake one's head and pass on by.


​Even in a world with people duplicating machines I have no trouble
understanding what *BEING* someone means, and I have no trouble
understanding what having *BEEN* somebody means, but I have enormous
difficulty understanding what the one and only one person I *WILL BE*
means.


Who asked you? Not me. But you can perhaps comprehend that you could find
yourself in the position of remembering having had the same predecessor as
someone else. In that case, as convention has it, the individual that you
find yourself to be can be considered as one of the future continuations of
that predecessor. And by that same token, as not being any of the others.
So the predecessor's anticipated 'next moment is in fact a single present
moment in the point of view of any one of the successors. Each will recall
that moment of anticipation as the immediately preceding part of their
personal history.

The predecessor, knowing about the duplication, is able to DESCRIBE more
than one such continuation. But they will also easily appreciate that their
present state will inevitably be recalled from the perspective of not more
than one of those continuations at any given future moment. The
restrictions logically contingent on the nature of individuality preclude
the possibility of BEING, which is to say occupying the perspective of,
more than a single individual at any given moment.

It may possibly help with any conceptual difficulties to consider that just
as multiple continuations can't be experienced simultaneously, they can
nevertheless be conceived as being experienced serially. Hence in a certain
sense the predecessor can indeed anticipate experiencing BEING both
continuations, but serially and not in the context of the same moment. The
personal histories of such 'serially simultaneous' moments then
subsequently diverge. This heuristic of what one may term 'universal
agency' is borrowed from Hoyle.

Since the relation with both personal history and spatial-temporal
localisation is by assumption locally determined, this can make no
difference to anything but ease of conceptualisation. Given this scenario
and provided, as you must, that you now restrict your imagination to the
perspective of one continuation at a time, probabilistic logic and games of
chance such as those previously proposed can be seen to play out quite
naturally and without further conceptual difficulty.

To be honest, I wonder sometimes if the problem here is simply a failure to
relinquish an initially faulty perception, even in the case that a correct
one simplifies and resolves the puzzle. I'm reminded of the math docs who
argued interminably over disfunctional interpretations of the Monty Hall
problem when a simple solution was just obvious in the light of the correct
one.

But I strongly suspect you already know all this. Think of this as an
experiment in intellectual honesty, John. It may hurt a little at first,
but it's a lot less painful than pretending to be stupid.

David

John K Clark







​John K Clark ​





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