@ Nick, Re " You might want to join us tomorrow for the vFRIAM meeting. We could use some new blood. "
Thanks Nick, I really would like to join your sessions, but I just have too many things on my todo list so for now I'm going to pass On Fri, 16 Apr 2021 at 00:12, <[email protected]> wrote: > Pieter, > > > > You might want to join us tomorrow for the vFRIAM meeting. We could use > some new blood. > > > > Bill McCallum is usually there; he da materials guy. > > > > See Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > > > > Nick > > > > Nick Thompson > > [email protected] > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Pieter Steenekamp > *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:44 PM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > [email protected]> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum > > > > Nick, > > Simple, because the technology to get copper out of the earth and convert > it into a usable form is developing faster than population rise and > supplies dwindling. > My argument is that exactly this has been happening for centuries, why > would it suddenly stop now? > Going back to the 1980 bet between Simon and Ehlrig > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager. According to > Ehlrig we should have run out of resources long ago, but technological > development made a big difference. Another example, the US was on her way > to run out of oil a couple of decades ago and is now an exporter of oil. > > I repeat, I'm not saying it WILL happen. All I'm saying is not to assume > technological development HAS to end end doom HAS to happen. We just don't > know what the future will bring and there are people like David Deutsch > that see a very bright future for humanity. > > Back to copper, I quote from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper : > > Julian Simon <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Lincoln_Simon> was a > senior fellow at the Cato Institute > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cato_Institute> and a professor of > business and economics. In his book *The Ultimate Resource 2 > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ultimate_Resource>* (first printed in > 1981 and reprinted in 1998), he extensively criticizes the notion of "peak > resources", and uses copper as one example. He argues that, even though > "peak copper" has been a persistent scare since the early 20th century, > "known reserves" grew at a rate that outpaced demand, and the price of > copper was not rising but falling over the long run. For example, even > though world production of copper in 1950 was only one-eighth of what it > was in early-2000s, known reserves were also much lower at the time – > around 100 million metric tons – making it appear that the world would run > out of copper in 40 to 50 years at most. > > Simon's own explanation for this development is that the very notion of > known reserves is deeply flawed,[39] > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-39> as it does not > take into account changes in mining profitability. As richer mines are > exhausted, developers turn their attention to poorer sources of the element > and eventually develop cheap methods of extracting it, raising known > reserves. Thus, for example, copper was so abundant 5000 years ago, > occurring in pure form as well as in highly concentrated copper ores, that > prehistoric peoples were able to collect and process it with very basic > technology. As of the early 21st century, copper is commonly mined from > ores that contain 0.3% to 0.6% copper by weight. Yet, despite the material > being far less widespread, the cost of, for example, a copper pot was > vastly lower in the late 20th century than 5000 years ago.[40] > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_copper#cite_note-40> > > Simon essentially states that not all viable copper has been discovered > and that not all technological advancements in mining and refining have > occurred, so statements that the point of peak copper has been or will be > reached must be false. Simon supports his argument by showing that copper > supplies have increased and prices have fallen. > > > > On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 21:13, <[email protected]> wrote: > > Pieter, > > > > I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically. The sound of an ugly fact > puncturing a beautiful theory. Psssssst! > > > > If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was > rising, that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not > expect copper prices to be rising? > > > > Which of my assumptions is wrong. > > > > Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the > conductive properties of copper? > > > > > > > > Nick Thompson > > [email protected] > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Pieter Steenekamp > *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > [email protected]> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum > > > > Nick, > > I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong? > > It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm > particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his > https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ : > " The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially > *infinite > reach*: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no > upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve. " > > Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. > Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no > reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why? > > > > On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <[email protected]> wrote: > > Pieter, > > > > That just HAS to be wrong. What am I missing, here? NOT a rhetorical > question. > > > > Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the > potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe? > > > > N > > > > Nick Thompson > > [email protected] > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Pieter Steenekamp > *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > [email protected]> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum > > > > Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980 > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager > But of course, it's different this time around > > > > On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <[email protected]> > wrote: > > Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem. We don't have enough > stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at > a price anyone can afford. I have a colleague who has calculated that we > will run out of copper in three years, as just one example. My > understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity. > > > > On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <[email protected]> wrote: > > Merle, and all, > > > > A naïve question: Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an > energy distribution problem? For starters, let there be a solar collector > on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof > (roofly the area of the rough?) . Assuming energy were entirely miscible, > what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa > Feans would that generate. I assume hundreds of percents, right? > > > > N > > > > Nick Thompson > > [email protected] > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Merle Lefkoff > *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > [email protected]> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum > > > > Almost, but not quite, Jochen. He doesn't know about embodied energy. A > motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric > car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh. Perhaps if he knew this he > wouldn't be so optimistic. We are racing toward our doom. > > > > On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <[email protected]> wrote: > > Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book > about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in > Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry > > > https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything > > > > -J. > > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > > > > -- > > Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D. > Center for Emergent Diplomacy > emergentdiplomacy.org > > Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA > > > mobile: (303) 859-5609 > skype: merle.lelfkoff2 > > twitter: @merle110 > > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > > > > -- > > Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D. > Center for Emergent Diplomacy > emergentdiplomacy.org > > Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA > > > mobile: (303) 859-5609 > skype: merle.lelfkoff2 > > twitter: @merle110 > > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >
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