We are not running out of resources. Nature is abundant--and generous. We are running out of a biosphere that supports life as we wrestle those resources from the earth.
On Sat, Apr 17, 2021 at 2:14 AM Pieter Steenekamp < [email protected]> wrote: > @Merle Re "true experts can be really dumb" > > You're right, it's not a good argument to say that because any EXPERT said > something it must be true. > > And I agree that it sounds really crazy to say that constrained by the > laws of physics there are no upper limits to what humans can accomplish. > > Although it sounds crazy, I argue it's not really crazy, why? > > a) If we could go back 2000 years and tell those people what we have > accomplished, it will certainly sound crazy to them. To miss-quote Arther C > Clarke "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from > being crazy" > b) There's no evidence that human ingenuity shows any signs of slowing > down or stopping. On the contrary there are many signs that it's > exponentially increasing. > c) There are really very huge reservoirs of yet untapped physical > resources on earth. A key component is free energy. With abundant free > energy we can really achieve a lot. Once we have perfected nuclear fusion > we will have many orders of magnitude more free energy available. With that > it's going to be easy to desalinate sea water and pump it anywhere you > wish. Also, carbon is an amazing and abundant chemical, it can be used to > make components that have properties that are suitable to make and build > very exotic stuff. Developing microbes to grow food in small ponds means we > can restore huge parts of the planet to natural ecosystems and still > have abundant food.for many of billions of people. These all are all tiny > compared to the progress we made the last 2000 years and the proof of > concept on all these has been done. We have done the heavy lifting > technological developments. Especially with the assistance of AI, there's > so much just waiting to be done. Another amazing and very recent > development is mRNA vaccination technology, it has the potential to make us > win the war against viruses. > > It's impossible to say what's going to happen in the future. Disaster can > strike. AI can get out of hand. Humanity can make any one of many stupid > mistakes and any one of many potential natural disasters could distroy > humanity. I'm not predicting anything. My only point is nothing is > invetibel and I don't see any reason, in the absence of a natural disaster, > why the progress we have been making MUST suddenly grind to a halt. We > certainly are not running out of resources. > > > On Sat, 17 Apr 2021 at 00:02, Merle Lefkoff <[email protected]> > wrote: > >> One of the things I've learned working with true experts is that just >> because someone is really really smart about something (usually, the way >> the academy works, only one thing), they can be really really dumb about >> some others. >> >> On Fri, Apr 16, 2021 at 12:33 AM Pieter Steenekamp < >> [email protected]> wrote: >> >>> @Merle >>> Re your "Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are >>> no "upper limits." That's just crazy! Please do some research on >>> planetary boundaries. " >>> You are correct, it's wrong just to say there are no upper limits, it >>> has to be qualified. >>> I quoted David Deutch and his qualification in his book The Beginning of >>> Infinity is " we are subject only to the laws of physics " >>> David is one of our planet's brightest minds having co-proposed the >>> first deterministic quantum computer algorithm. By all means disagree with >>> his arguments, but be careful to call it "just crazy" >>> >>> On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 23:57, Merle Lefkoff <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are no "upper >>>> limits." That's just crazy! Please do some research on planetary >>>> boundaries. >>>> >>>> People do not know that we are running out of copper, but as they find >>>> out, the price will go up, and if we have to suddenly find a >>>> replacement--like silver--the price will go up even more. >>>> >>>> On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 1:13 PM <[email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>>> Pieter, >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically. The sound of an ugly fact >>>>> puncturing a beautiful theory. Psssssst! >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was >>>>> rising, that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not >>>>> expect copper prices to be rising? >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Which of my assumptions is wrong. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the >>>>> conductive properties of copper? >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Nick Thompson >>>>> >>>>> [email protected] >>>>> >>>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Pieter >>>>> Steenekamp >>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PM >>>>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < >>>>> [email protected]> >>>>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Nick, >>>>> >>>>> I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong? >>>>> >>>>> It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm >>>>> particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his >>>>> https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ : >>>>> " The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has >>>>> potentially *infinite reach*: we are subject only to the laws of >>>>> physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually >>>>> understand, control, and achieve. " >>>>> >>>>> Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. >>>>> Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no >>>>> reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why? >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <[email protected]> wrote: >>>>> >>>>> Pieter, >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> That just HAS to be wrong. What am I missing, here? NOT a rhetorical >>>>> question. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the >>>>> potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa >>>>> Fe? >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> N >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Nick Thompson >>>>> >>>>> [email protected] >>>>> >>>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Pieter >>>>> Steenekamp >>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AM >>>>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < >>>>> [email protected]> >>>>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980 >>>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager >>>>> But of course, it's different this time around >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <[email protected]> >>>>> wrote: >>>>> >>>>> Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem. We don't have enough >>>>> stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at >>>>> a price anyone can afford. I have a colleague who has calculated that we >>>>> will run out of copper in three years, as just one example. My >>>>> understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <[email protected]> wrote: >>>>> >>>>> Merle, and all, >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> A naïve question: Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have >>>>> an energy distribution problem? For starters, let there be a solar >>>>> collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the >>>>> roof (roofly the area of the rough?) . Assuming energy were entirely >>>>> miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of >>>>> course) of Santa Feans would that generate. I assume hundreds of >>>>> percents, >>>>> right? >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> N >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Nick Thompson >>>>> >>>>> [email protected] >>>>> >>>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> *From:* Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Merle Lefkoff >>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AM >>>>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < >>>>> [email protected]> >>>>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Almost, but not quite, Jochen. He doesn't know about embodied >>>>> energy. A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while >>>>> an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh. Perhaps if he >>>>> knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic. We are racing toward our doom. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <[email protected]> >>>>> wrote: >>>>> >>>>> Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a >>>>> book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in >>>>> Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -J. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> >>>>> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D. >>>>> Center for Emergent Diplomacy >>>>> emergentdiplomacy.org >>>>> >>>>> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> mobile: (303) 859-5609 >>>>> skype: merle.lelfkoff2 >>>>> >>>>> twitter: @merle110 >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> >>>>> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D. >>>>> Center for Emergent Diplomacy >>>>> emergentdiplomacy.org >>>>> >>>>> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> mobile: (303) 859-5609 >>>>> skype: merle.lelfkoff2 >>>>> >>>>> twitter: @merle110 >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>>> >>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>>> >>>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D. >>>> Center for Emergent Diplomacy >>>> emergentdiplomacy.org >>>> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA >>>> >>>> mobile: (303) 859-5609 >>>> skype: merle.lelfkoff2 >>>> twitter: @merle110 >>>> >>>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>> >>> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >>> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >>> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>> >> >> >> -- >> Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D. >> Center for Emergent Diplomacy >> emergentdiplomacy.org >> Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA >> >> mobile: (303) 859-5609 >> skype: merle.lelfkoff2 >> twitter: @merle110 >> >> - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam >> un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ >> archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > -- Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D. Center for Emergent Diplomacy emergentdiplomacy.org Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA mobile: (303) 859-5609 skype: merle.lelfkoff2 twitter: @merle110
- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
