Our whole economic system is based on constant growth and fossil fuel consumption. It is obvious that constant growth in a finite system will not work. There are limits of growth which was already noticed during the first oil crisis 50 years agohttp://bit-player.org/2012/world3-the-public-betaThe next decades will be interesting. We have a climate crisis and a pollution problem caused by ever growing CO2 and waste production. We will run of non-renewable resources soon. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/forecast-when-well-run-out-of-each-metalOn the other hand there might be scientific and technological breakthroughs, such as human-level AI and machines who understand language and reach self-awareness. Interesting times. -J. -------- Original message --------From: Merle Lefkoff <[email protected]> Date: 4/17/21 15:34 (GMT+01:00) To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum We are not running out of resources. Nature is abundant--and generous. We are running out of a biosphere that supports life as we wrestle those resources from the earth.On Sat, Apr 17, 2021 at 2:14 AM Pieter Steenekamp <[email protected]> wrote:@Merle Re "true experts can be really dumb"You're right, it's not a good argument to say that because any EXPERT said something it must be true. And I agree that it sounds really crazy to say that constrained by the laws of physics there are no upper limits to what humans can accomplish.Although it sounds crazy, I argue it's not really crazy, why?a) If we could go back 2000 years and tell those people what we have accomplished, it will certainly sound crazy to them. To miss-quote Arther C Clarke "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from being crazy"b) There's no evidence that human ingenuity shows any signs of slowing down or stopping. On the contrary there are many signs that it's exponentially increasing. c) There are really very huge reservoirs of yet untapped physical resources on earth. A key component is free energy. With abundant free energy we can really achieve a lot. Once we have perfected nuclear fusion we will have many orders of magnitude more free energy available. With that it's going to be easy to desalinate sea water and pump it anywhere you wish. Also, carbon is an amazing and abundant chemical, it can be used to make components that have properties that are suitable to make and build very exotic stuff. Developing microbes to grow food in small ponds means we can restore huge parts of the planet to natural ecosystems and still have abundant food.for many of billions of people. These all are all tiny compared to the progress we made the last 2000 years and the proof of concept on all these has been done. We have done the heavy lifting technological developments. Especially with the assistance of AI, there's so much just waiting to be done. Another amazing and very recent development is mRNA vaccination technology, it has the potential to make us win the war against viruses.It's impossible to say what's going to happen in the future. Disaster can strike. AI can get out of hand. Humanity can make any one of many stupid mistakes and any one of many potential natural disasters could distroy humanity. I'm not predicting anything. My only point is nothing is invetibel and I don't see any reason, in the absence of a natural disaster, why the progress we have been making MUST suddenly grind to a halt. We certainly are not running out of resources. On Sat, 17 Apr 2021 at 00:02, Merle Lefkoff <[email protected]> wrote:One of the things I've learned working with true experts is that just because someone is really really smart about something (usually, the way the academy works, only one thing), they can be really really dumb about some others.On Fri, Apr 16, 2021 at 12:33 AM Pieter Steenekamp <[email protected]> wrote:@MerleRe your "Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are no "upper limits." That's just crazy! Please do some research on planetary boundaries. "You are correct, it's wrong just to say there are no upper limits, it has to be qualified.I quoted David Deutch and his qualification in his book The Beginning of Infinity is "
we are subject only to the laws of physics "David is one of our planet's brightest minds having co-proposed the first deterministic quantum computer algorithm. By all means disagree with his arguments, but be careful to call it "just crazy"On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 23:57, Merle Lefkoff <[email protected]> wrote:Pieter, your main assumption that is wrong is that there are no "upper limits." That's just crazy! Please do some research on planetary boundaries. People do not know that we are running out of copper, but as they find out, the price will go up, and if we have to suddenly find a replacement--like silver--the price will go up even more.On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 1:13 PM <[email protected]> wrote:Pieter, I meant the “has to be” a bit ironically. The sound of an ugly fact puncturing a beautiful theory. Psssssst! If I were to believe that populations were rising, that copper use was rising, that copper supplies were flat or dwindling, why would I not expect copper prices to be rising? Which of my assumptions is wrong. Or is it your expectation that we will develop a plastic with the conductive properties of copper? Nick [email protected]https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of Pieter SteenekampSent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 1:03 PMTo: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]>Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum Nick,I'm not with you, what HAS to be wrong?It's impossible to predict the future, anything could happen. I'm particularly attracted to the views of David Deutsch. I quote from his https://www.thebeginningofinfinity.com/ :" The resulting stream of ever-improving explanations has potentially infinite reach: we are subject only to the laws of physics, and they impose no upper limit to what we can eventually understand, control, and achieve. "Life on earth is good and is getting better and better for all of us. Sure, a disaster could strike, nothing is inevitable, but I can see no reason why the progress we have made HAS to stop. Why? On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 20:11, <[email protected]> wrote:Pieter, That just HAS to be wrong. What am I missing, here? NOT a rhetorical question. Does anybody know, in orders of magnitude, the relation between the potential rooftop gain and the total energy needs of a place like Santa Fe? N Nick [email protected]https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of Pieter SteenekampSent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 11:58 AMTo: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]>Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum Yeah, just like we were seriously running out of stuff in 1980https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wagerBut of course, it's different this time around On Thu, 15 Apr 2021 at 19:41, Merle Lefkoff <[email protected]> wrote:Nick, I think we have an energy supply problem. We don't have enough stuff left in the ground to dig up to supply our technology much longer at a price anyone can afford. I have a colleague who has calculated that we will run out of copper in three years, as just one example. My understanding is that copper wire conducts most of our electricity. On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 11:17 AM <[email protected]> wrote:Merle, and all, A naïve question: Do we have an energy supply problem or do we have an energy distribution problem? For starters, let there be a solar collector on the roof of every house in santa fe, roughly the area of the roof (roofly the area of the rough?) . Assuming energy were entirely miscible, what proportion of the total energy needs (except food, of course) of Santa Feans would that generate. I assume hundreds of percents, right? N Nick [email protected]https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of Merle LefkoffSent: Thursday, April 15, 2021 10:51 AMTo: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]>Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Theory of (Almost) Everything - IEEE Spectrum Almost, but not quite, Jochen. He doesn't know about embodied energy. A motor car has an embodied energy contents of 20 800k kWh, while an electric car's embodied energy amounts to 34 700 kWh. Perhaps if he knew this he wouldn't be so optimistic. We are racing toward our doom. On Thu, Apr 15, 2021 at 10:06 AM Jochen Fromm <[email protected]> wrote:Interesting IEEE podcast: an interview with Václav Smil, who wrote a book about "Grand Transitions", similar to "The Major Transitions in Evolution" from John Maynard Smith and Eörs Szathmáry https://spectrum.ieee.org/podcast/geek-life/history/a-theory-of-almost-everything -J. - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listservZoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriamun/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.comFRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ -- Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.Center for Emergent Diplomacyemergentdiplomacy.orgSanta Fe, New Mexico, USAmobile: (303) 859-5609skype: merle.lelfkoff2twitter: @merle110 - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listservZoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriamun/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.comFRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ -- Merle Lefkoff, Ph.D.Center for Emergent Diplomacyemergentdiplomacy.orgSanta Fe, New Mexico, USAmobile: (303) 859-5609skype: merle.lelfkoff2twitter: @merle110 - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listservZoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriamun/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.comFRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. .FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listservZoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriamun/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.comFRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/- .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . 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