Flood risk at any given place is a function of many different factors,
not all related to amount or intensity of rainfall. Drainage of
wetlands, land use change, building (esp car parks and roads), flood
defences and their maintenance etc etc, all have an effect on flood
risk. But an intensification of rainfall events is a robust prediction
for a warming world, and I suggest we're now seeing that in practice.
A meteorologist friend commented in a recent email: "The non-linearity
of the Clausius-Clapyron equation has the world by the whatsits, as
they say."
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