I can't find it on the Hadley Centre site at the moment, but the trend
towards 2080 is predicted to be drier summers generally, but more
extreme rainfall events when they do occur within that.
It is worth noting that it's not just the rainfall on the day that
counts. For example, Sheffield had its highest rainfall month on
record in June (the month it flooded) with the previous record easily
beaten around about the time of the floods. This meant that the rivers
were already running high, and the ground saturated when the (second)
rainfall event occurred. The area also experienced heavy floods (not
as bad I think) around 2000ish but I don't know much about those.
As regards to planning, well claiming that they are unprecedented or
caused by global warming (whatever the truth of the matter), is not
get-out for the EA or whoever, as the global warming predictions are
for more and heavier rainfall in winter, which would effectively cause
the same outcomes, so they need to be planned and prepared for anyway.
The main difference with a summer event (as someone pointed out
elsewhere) is that the caravan parks on the flood plains tend to have
higher occupancy.
Cheers,
Adam
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