[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
>> http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,2133244,00.html
>
> http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weather/article2127599.ece
>
> "We looked at annual rainfall trends rather than any particular
> season," Dr Stott said. "In the UK wetter winters are expected which
> will lead to more extreme rainfall, whereas summers are expected to
> get drier. However, it is possible under climate change that there
> could be an increase of extreme rainfall even under general drying."
>
> Ok, yes it's possible, but Dr Stott doesn't seem to have looked at the
> question whether it's happened or can be predicted to happen in the
> UK, ie that there's more floods even in the summer when it's predicted
> to get drier rather than wetter?
Since everyone is talking about the "worst floods for a generation" it
seems pretty clear that we are seeing the typical one in 50 event that
most people can expect to see in their lifetimes. Indeed the max
rainfall was rather less than half the measured record, and rainfall
stats are much less complete than temperature.
I was wondering how the "optimal climate/optimally adapted" people would
respond to this event :-) It is well known that substantial development
has taken place in vulnerable areas with limited attention to flood
risk, rather like New Orleans. On the other hand, maybe it is "optimal"
to allow such flooding on a 50 year return basis rather than pay up
front to defend against it. People still buy the houses!
Of course the usual suspects will try their best to pin it on AGW,
because that is their get-out-of-jail card for inadequate planning and
their main "give us more money" argument. The head of the UK Environment
Agency certainly has previous form on exaggerating climate change for
whatever purpose (to the extent that the scientists who were
misrepresented went public with their criticisms, which as noted in the
resent "Alarmism ad absurdam" thread is extraordinarily rare).
James
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