> As to the summer extremes - wouldn't that be exactly when you'd expect > rainfall records to be set? Warmer air, more moisture, thunderstorms, > flooding. Perhaps we should be looking at changes in the occurrence of > "thundery rain"
The record for the daily total happens to fall in August in England, it's not hard to see why that shouldn't be beaten inspite of overall drier summers. Interestingly, two month combined totals aren't listed on the Met Office historical records page http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/charts/hadukp_ts_plots.html They've got 11 regions and 12 months though, with each month having a minimum rainfall record, a maximum rainfall record, and a daily maximum rainfall record. That makes for 11*12*3 or 396 possible historical records. Add the seasons and the annual average for the 11 regions and the 11 possible consecutive two month combined totals, for minimal and maximal rainfall and we have another 11*16*2 or 352 possible historical records. Ok, they are't entirely independent, but still. So, if June isn't a record, well, let's see whether June + May are, or at least are for England and Wales, or for Scotland, and if that still doesn't yield a record, let's add April or the first half of July. It isn't entirely surprising that this should yield records, even if the underlying probability distribution has actually shifted slightly to make a particular record (May/June combined total) less likely. A cursory glance at the historical data seems to suggest a much clearer (downward) signal for July than for May or June, though, so there doesn't have to be a contradiction between drier summers and wetter combined May/June totals. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
