Gareth wrote:
>
>
> On Jul 25, 1:00 pm, James Annan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>> Maybe, but it's important to recognise that flooding is a function not
>> only of rainfall, but of vulnerability:
>
> As I pointed out in my first post...
>
> Perhaps you'd care to expand on the "maybe", being our local
> probability expert?
Are you asking about the probability of precipitation extremes, or of
flooding? Given the changes in the built environment, there is not a 1-1
correspondence over time.
The predictions are for drier summers and wetter winters, with an
associated increase in extremes. I'm not sure if the increase in
extremes is supposed to be confined to the winter, but I would not be
surprised if this is the case. In order to see increased summer
extremes, the variability would have to increase rapidly enough to
overcome the trend (rather than adding to it as in winter).
The observed increase in annual precipitation is about 6cm per century
in this latitude band. I don't think there is any reason to expect
substantially more extreme ppt in summer in the current climate,
compared to (say) 50 years ago, but I would happily defer to an expert
analysis. In contrast, I'm sure we can expect hotter summers than were
common over the last century, with a significantly enhanced probability
of extreme heat (and associated drought).
Obviously with more vulnerable housing, there is going to be more flood
damage even with the same precipitation.
James
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