James wrote, earlier > it seems pretty clear that we are seeing the typical > one in 50 event that most people can expect to see in their lifetimes
And on Jul 25, 1:55 pm, James Annan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Are you asking about the probability of precipitation extremes, or of > flooding? Given the changes in the built environment, there is not a 1-1 > correspondence over time. I'm asking abut both, really. Your 50 year flood event turns out to be worse than 1947, which was a 200 year event. Now, obviously, a 200 year event followed 60 years later by a ?300 year event doesn't mean the probabilities have necessarily changed, but it is suggestive given the predicted changes to the hydrological cycle. As far as precipitation extremes are concerned, we have (as I said) a robust prediction of intensification, and it looks as though that is being seen. Although the actual amounts involved in the UK floods may not themselves be records, the rate of precipitation over a wide area may well be. It will be interesting to see the post-flood Met Office analysis. (Some figures on the NZ environment blog: http://www.newscientist.com/blog/environment/2007/07/flooding-in-england-whats-to-be-done.html). As to the summer extremes - wouldn't that be exactly when you'd expect rainfall records to be set? Warmer air, more moisture, thunderstorms, flooding. Perhaps we should be looking at changes in the occurrence of "thundery rain" --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
