At 09:59 AM 4/30/2007 -0700, you wrote:
>[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
>> Ok, after seeing some of the comments made thus far - the question I have
>> is, were my numbers more or less on the money, and if so, does it make for
>> a reasonable explanation?
>
>No, your numbers were not on the money. You're making the assumption 
>that there's a 50% chance of having each of the specific genes, and the 
>real chance can range anywhere from 0 to 100%, depending mostly on 
>evolutionary advantage.
>
>If you want to have a constant low rate of a trait, it implies that 
>either the trait is not significantly evolutionarily favored (seems 
>unlikely for magery) or that the trait is one which results in 
>evolutionary disadvantages if it becomes too prevalent in the breeding 
>pool (e.g. the gene for sickle-cell anemia gives resistance to malaria 
>if you have one copy, but is likely to kill you if you have two copies).
>
>A dominant gene that produces negative effects if it occurs twice is 
>pretty easy to recognize, however, and would just mean that mages always 
>breed with non-mages. Some combination of multiple genes is probably 
>more reasonable.


Ok, in saying I was off the mark, you made me re-evaluate what my
assumptions where rather than plot them out.  A simple Dominant/Recessive
trait scheme would result in the following mendel square:

Mother: DD
Mother: dD
Mother: Dd
MOther: dd

Father: DD
Father: Dd
Father: dD
Father: dd

The odds of having the traits required where the child born has both dd is
actually 1 in 4, rather than 1 in 2.  I used the reciprocal of 2^n where n
= number of gene sites required to produce a magery of a given level.

The actual odds of achieving a given trait where both are recessive depends
on both parents giving the child the recessive gene.  When you increase the
number of gene sites to 2, the odds of a child getting recessives at both
sites becomes 1 in 16.

Which means, that instead of the formula being the reciprocal of 2^N where
N = number of genes involved, it looks like I should have used the
reciprocal of 4^N where N = number of sites.

Can anyone confirm?
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