Johannes asked:
> 90 AD
> 
> Within a distance of Rome, that can be reached in roughly 2 houres on 
> foot.

Hello Johannes, 

where was the effective city limit of Rome? Are you counting from 
the walls? Do you know how fuzzy the city limits were at the time?

I'm guessing that there would be farms for 'market gardening', or 
cemeteries, or noblemen's mansions, but I have to admit that is a 
pure guess ...

> There is a river large enough that travelling on it with 4 persons or 
> larger rowboats makes sense.

Answered by Anthony.

> There is a bridge going over the river.
> 
> Around dusk, it can be reasonably expected, that you will not meet any 
> random travellers. Or at least you can assume, that if random travellers 
> come and see something suspicious happen, it will take hours if not until 
> the next day, until any sort of guard that checks this out comes. (which 
> includes that the random travellers are not guards themselfs, or travel in
> the company of guards.)

Um. 

What is the chance that a random traveler qualifies as "guard"?

* How many serious roads (those with a bridge rather than a ford)
  were there? Via Appia, Via Flaminia, Via Aurelia, Via Cassia, 
  Via Salaria, Via Amerina, Via Labicana, ...

* On average, how many Roman officials would enter or leave Rome
  on any given day? Depends on your definition of official, of 
  course. How many nobles? The two groups would run together. 

* Would those people travel alone or with a small retinue? And 
  would they assume responsibility for "suspicious" incidents 
  they encounter? 

What is the chance that a neighbour qualifies as a "guard"? See
my thought above re nobles' mansions in the area. 

* Would that noble bother to get out of his villa, or at least
  to send a semi-official henchman? 

  What is the likelihood that the noble is a patron to the 
  traveler who reports the incident, and what is the chance
  that the traveler decides to report things to his patron 
  rather than a "real city guard"?

* Even if a villa belongs to the noble, how likely is he in 
  residence?

Regards,
Onno
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