My understanding from the Lyx developers forum is that the MiKTeX bugs that were the main cause of the delayed release for Windows users has been fixed. The issue now seems to be how to communicate possible MiKTeeX issues to users during the 2.3.0 installation process.
In my 20+ years in the world of science, I have not known a single user of Lyx (~50 in total) who wasn't computer savvy. Why not just include a warning message that Lyx 2.3.0 may not function properly with MiKTeX distributions that have not been updated as recently as some specific date? My opinion is that you're making far too big a deal of this. I don't think putting this minor bit of extra responsibility in the hands of the users will go as badly as some have suggested. If users ignore this warning and find Lyx to be disfunctional as a result, well...too bad. You'd have done your due diligence with a simple warning message. If you have another prompt asking users whether they'd like to update their MiKTeX distribution, I think that'd be fine too. I realize that there are unofficial binaries available. Nonetheless, 2.30rc2 is working well enough for me on Windows 10. I'll await the official release. Jim