"Donald Trump is organizing a legal version of January 6, 2020. If he succeeds, all other democratic rights will be sharply curtailed."
-- John Reimann -- https://groups.io/g/marxmail/topic/120549500 "Perhaps the real situation is that it's unlikely that any radical leftists would believe that these are times when nothing essential is going to change, that abrupt catastrophes are unlikely and the old system will simply limp on, but then again so much of it does. It is the elections, and whether Trump can contest them, that are among the key moments that will show what the real balance of power is in the ruling class and the real feeling is among the masses. It is empty phrasemongering and complacency to instead resort to the tired old formulas, similar to those we have heard so many times as the old system collapses in one area after another." -- Joseph Green -- ibid John Reimann is correct to raise the alarm concerning Trump's attempt to plunge the 2026 mid-terms into an ocean of chaos and confusion--and take a big step towards a constitutional crisis and the suspension of democratic rights. When John first wrote about this a month ago, Marv replied that the odds of Trump's success were lower now than they were on January 6, 2020 -- because Trump's standing with both the elites and the masses was lower than it has ever been. Marv then suggested that John and others were simply sharing a mood of "widespread liberal panic about a looming fascist takeover". In the past month, however, as more information has leaked out, it has become increasingly clear that something big is afoot. There has been discussion on this listserv concerning what (if anything) we can do about what appears to be an impending crisis. We cannot expect significant actions by the trade union bureaucrats, nor "socialist" organizations such as the DSA. The Democratic Party has been keeping its "No Kings" movement on a tight leash with no big actions planned. Anthony Teso suggested that small independent leftist groups might be able to encourage postal workers to leak additional information (as it becomes available) because this can end up impacting what journalists report and courts decide. Charles notes that a crisis of the magnitude of what may be unfolding would likely lead to powerful mass actions and appears to be focused on how independent activists might be able to contribute to clarity concerning key principles in the period of increasing political ferment that may be ahead. One suggestion--a joint letter My comments today are not focused on what we can do to defend our democratic rights in the crisis that appears to be unfolding. I do not have the ability to contribute to a discussion of what we (and by "we", I am refering to activists who subscribe to this listserv) can do at this moment. (But I will offer one suggestion for a modest action--a joint letter that might be signed by whoever agrees with it--that we could send to a list of leftists journals and newspapers.) Understanding the big picture Rather--my aim in this post is to better understand the big picture of what is happening--and why. For example, Marv is correct that Trump's level of support is weaker (with both the masses, and within the ruling class) now than it has ever been. But Marv is mistaken to think that this makes Trump less dangerous. The truth appears to be the opposite. Why is this? Joseph's comments help to point us in the right direction: the old system is collapsing in one area after another. We need to understand why our ruling class even allowed someone like Trump to come to power in the first place. Different kinds of bonapartism There are many different interpretations of the term "Bonapartism". I believe that we may be able to better understand this term as describing a period in which the normal ruling institutions (ie: which the bourgeoisie uses to resolve its internal conflicts and rule society) become incapable of serving the needs of our ruling class and must be restructured (or at least temporarily suspended). When this happens--an unusual amount of power is delegated to a dictator. Per this definition--there are different kinds of Bonapartism. Louis Bonaparte was, of course, a Bonapartist--but so was Bismark (Hal Draper wrote of this in "Karl Marx's Theory of Revolution", where he quotes extensively from the Marx-Engels correspondence concerning Bismark--if anyone is interested I can put this online). Mussolini was a Bonapartist--but per this definition so was Franklin Roosevelt. The historical period of "Pax Americana" began, most agree, with the defeat of fascist Germany and Japan and the structuring of the cold war alliance system--with US imperialism at the center--in opposition to its Soviet rival. A big part of the ideological rivalry concerned the ideas of "freedom" and "democracy". And the ruling institutions in the US learned how to fly these flags. Less carrot and more stick Opinions differ concerning when Pax American ended. Some believe it ended in 2008 (with the financial crisis). Mearsheimer believes it ended in 2017. Others believe it has ended only now--with Trump's war on Iran. But--in any event--Pax Americana is dead. China has emerged as the rising power--and the US looks like it is headed towards default (either official--or unofficial via inflation) on its $40 trillion debt and the eventual loss of the dollar as the world reserve currency. This could lead to a significant drop in the standard of living--and a need for our ruling class to make use of a "firm hand" (ie: less carrot and more stick). In this situation, a section of our ruling class (most prominently--people like Peter Thiel and Elon Musk) want to sweep away institutions which fly the banner of "democracy". They believe that "freedom" (for capital) is not compatible with democratic institutions--and their mantra is "universal sufferage brings universal suffering". The fact that Trump is in power suggests that this section of our ruling class has a lot of influence. Use it or lose it So why is Trump more dangerous as he gets weaker and his MAGA movement faces disintegration? Because this put that section of our ruling class that wants to throw away (or suspend) democratic rights and institutions in a "now-or-never", "use-it-or-lose-it" situation. The German ruling class put Hitler in power (as I understand it) after the influence of Hitler's fascist movement had peaked and started to decline. They had a choice: play the Hitler card--or watch it disintegrate in their hand. Something similar may be in play today. We will see It appears to me that attempts by Trump to transform the 2026 mid-terms into a constitutional crisis would likely end in fiasco. But, to be honest, that is only a guess. Maybe that is the voice of hope--or the voice of fear. It is in moments like these that we realize how little we know. That is why I like the summary by Joseph: we will soon see what the real balance of power is in the ruling class--and the real feeling is among the masses. -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. 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